Rays vs Giants Prediction, Picks, Odds

Longtime Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford looks like he's nearing the end of the road, batting under .200 in the last season of his contract. Batting near the bottom of the lineup and often getting pinch-hit for, there is value on a certain prop.

The Tampa Bay Rays and San Francisco Giants will wrap up a three-game set under the afternoon sun at Oracle Park after the clubs split a pair of lopsided victories earlier in the week. It will be Aaron Civale making his third start with his new club while the slightly favored home side will go with a bullpen day for a third straight game.  

With Civale not getting a long leash in his new surroundings, the door is open in the middle innings for some pinch-hit risk with the Giants’ lineup and an Under 0.5 hitter strikeout is showing the best value. 

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Giants for Wednesday, August 16.

Rays vs Giants odds

Rays vs Giants predictions

Aaron Civale is not a big strikeout guy and has just 64 punch outs over 86 innings on the year. He’s also allowed 16 hits with just six Ks over his first 9 1/3 innings with the Rays. Those games came against the Guardians and Tigers — two weak offenses.

His Over 5.5 hits allowed at even money is projecting well, but with a seemingly short leash under Kevin Cash (91 and 90 pitches), he could be handing the ball off to one of the solid left-handed arms in the bullpen and that, in turn, could lead to a pinch hitter for the Giants.

There are plenty of left-handed bats on the Giants who sub out vs. southpaws and No.8 hitter Brandon Crawford is one of them. The veteran shortstop carries the biggest pinch-hit risk at 26% and projects for the fewest plate appearances at 3.4. His Under 0.5 hits is +120 and showing a little +EV but his Under 0.5 hitter Ks at +145 is showing a near-10% difference in the implied vs. projected totals.

Crawford is strikeout prone but Civale is a perfect pitcher to bet this Under with. He is a low K% pitcher who is giving up a lot of hits with his new team. He generated just three swinging strikes in his last start and has gone Over 4.5 Ks just once in his last five starts. 

— Umpire Scorecards (@UmpScorecards) August 16, 2023

Yesterday saw 21 strikeouts to four walks but a lot of that had to do with home plate umpire Chad Whitson's large strike zone that got Gabe Kapler tossed from the game after complaining. Fourteen of Whitson's 47 strikes called were true balls, per Umpire Scorecards. That could potentially lead to a tighter zone today.   

Crawford has the potential to see just two at-bats before hopefully seeing a lefty out of the pen and the best value to take advantage of this is with his Under 0.5 hitter Ks at +145 at DraftKings. 

My best bet: Brandon Crawford Under 0.5 hitter strikeouts (+145 at DraftKings)

Rays vs Giants same-game parlay

Brandon Crawford Under 0.5 hits (+120)

Under 8.5 (-120)

No run first inning (-125)

The Under 0.5 hitter strikeouts is available at DraftKings but their SGPs have very high holds that zap pretty much any value a play has. That's why if you're going to play SGPs, the best place is bet365. But, as always, calculate the true odds and see home much the books are taking from you before hitting that bet button. 

Crawford has a big pinch-hit risk and is hitting under .200 on the season. 

The total has hit 8 in many places and although the Giants have used an opener in each game of the series, the bullpen is set up very well for today. Civale should also keep this weak San Francisco offense at bay in a great pitcher's park.

Ryan Walker was great vs. Tampa on Monday in the first frame, striking out one, picking off Randy Arozarena, and getting Harold Ramirez to fly out. Civale has allowed just one first-inning run over 15 starts this year. 

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Rays vs Giants moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Giants opened as even-money home dogs last night but got steamed this morning as bettors moved this line to Giants -115 as of 10 a.m. The total is also taking plenty of action on the Under, moving from as high as 9 to 8 in some spots. 

Despite using an opener in Walker, who also opened on Monday to positive results, there is a lot to like in the combo of him and Ross Stripling. The latter has found a better role in the piggyback starter. He’s gone 9 1/3 innings with three runs allowed in his two previous spots as the second man in and has been a much more consistent pitcher in the summer with a 3.41 ERA since July 1. 

Walker can also throw up donuts in the early frames and struck out four Tampa batters over two innings on Monday. He has 48 strikeouts over 43 innings with the Giants this year.

Wander Franco is still on the restricted list and this Tampa offense is not what it was out of the gates back in the spring. It will also be without Manuel Margot who just hit the IL. It still ranks in the middle of the league in most important offensive metrics, but Oracle Park is not an easy park to muster offense. 

The Giants might be without three bullpen arms thanks to the peculiar rotation setup, but with Walker likely eating a pair and Stripling good for four or five, that leaves the team’s three best relievers — who are all available — in Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers, and Taylor Rogers. 

Civale might not have the longest leash as the former Guardian has failed to get more than 15 outs in his two starts with the Rays or throw more than 91 pitches. The Tampa pen has an unsightly 5.23 ERA over the last 30 days while the Giants have been one of the best late-inning pitching teams with the No.1 WAR over that stretch. 

It’s a slight edge to the home side as Tampa will likely need 12 outs from its relievers, but this is not going to be an offensive game. The Giants have the No.29 offense over the last 30 days, per FanGraphs, while both teams are striking out at 25% or higher over that stretch. 

I can see why the Giants took some money on the ML, but it’s still a tough offense to back and who doesn’t love an afternoon getaway game where at-bats can be quick? 

is currently at 8 on the total and this Under is a play for me on Under 8.5 at -115 or better. It might be an opener from the Giants, but Walker/Stripling has been a good combo while Civale has been efficient in a lower-volume role with his new club. 

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Trend to know

The San Francisco Giants have hit the team total Under in 30 of their last 43 games (+15.79 Units / 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Giants

Rays vs Giants game info

Starting pitchers

Aaron Civale (5-3, 2.61 ERA): Civale will be making his 16th start of the season and third with the Rays. He carries a 64:23 K:BB ratio over 86-plus innings but has needed 181 pitches to get 19 outs with Tampa as the right-hander has yet to get more than 15 outs with the new club. He hasn’t generated a ton of groundballs this year but has kept the ball in the park with just five home runs allowed. He’s given up just one long ball since the beginning of July. He is stranding 80% of his runners and has a low BABIP so his ERA is a little misleading, but he is a solid mid-3.00 ERA pitcher this season. THE BAT is projecting 94 pitches, 17 outs, 4.59 strikeouts, and 2.94 earned runs.

Ryan Walker (4-1, 2.28 ERA): Walker will be the opener and projects for four outs before turning things over to Ross Stripling who will eat the majority of the innings. Walker struck out four over two innings in his last start while Stripling has a 3.41 ERA since July 1 over 37 innings, and although he’s allowed seven home runs over that stretch hasn’t given up more than three runs in any of those outings. THE BAT projects 75 pitches, 13.9 outs, 4.03 strikeouts, and 2.41 earned runs from Stripling.