NASCAR Betting Guide: Crayon 301

This week's Crayon 301 in New Hampshire is a super unique opportunity.

It's the first time we've seen the NASCAR Cup Series use their short track rules package at an oval since Martinsville, which was 10 races ago.

In other words, we've had time to forget which teams have had the best speed in this package. And some of the teams in the best form may not be as fast this weekend.

This is especially pertinent for the Toyotas. They've surged lately, and it has pushed Toyota's odds to win the race to +130 even though they have just six drivers entered. Given how fast they've been recently -- and how great some of their specific drivers are at New Hampshire -- I understand it.

I just don't agree with it, and neither does my model.

If you look back at relevant races in this package, we saw a different group of drivers consistently pushing for wins. Those drivers -- in my eyes -- are undervalued in the market this week, and we have multiple routes for getting exposure.

Let's run through those routes, outline why I'm still high on those drivers (or manufacturers -- hint, hint), and discuss my favorite spots for value this week based on FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR odds for New Hampshire.

Chevrolet to Win (+170)

Most of the drivers who are undervalued by my model this week drive Chevys. So, why not just bundle them all together?

Even with Toyota's strength, my model has the two favorites to win as Kyle Larson and William Byron. Those two have combined to win all three races on short, flat tracks this year (Larson in Martinsville and Richmond, Byron in Phoenix), leading 505 of 1,117 laps. The Toyotas combined to lead 190 laps in those three races and finished no better than third.

Chevrolet hasn't won at New Hampshire since 2016 when Kevin Harvick did it before Stewart-Haas Racing switched to Ford. Hendrick Motorsports hasn't won here since 2012 with Kasey Kahne. It's very much not their track.

But Richmond, Phoenix, and Martinsville have shown their strength on three very different short, flat tracks, and teams like Trackhouse Racing could also get the job done.

The implied odds at +170 are 37.0%. I've got Chevrolet well above that, so of all the markets available at FanDuel, this is my favorite for Sunday's race.

William Byron to Win (+1100)

Even if the "Chevrolet to win" bet is my favorite, I still gotta slobber over Willy B, specifically, for a second.

Byron is the current Cup Series points leader despite a 60-point penalty earlier this year. That shows how ungodly Byron's form is, and it has led to a series-leading four wins.

As mentioned before, one of those came at Phoenix, the closest comp to New Hampshire we've got. But he also led 117 laps in Richmond and arguably had the best car in that race.

New Hampshire, specifically, hasn't been kind to Byron in the Cup Series. He has never led a lap here, and his best finish is just 11th in 5 races. That's likely why the market is so cool on him.

I'm on board with Byron despite that for several reasons.

First, as mentioned, the form on relevant tracks is bananas.

Second, it's a small sample that primarily looks at Byron before his breakout.

Third, Byron does have success at this track -- just in lower series. He won here in the Truck Series, leading 161 of 175 laps during his age-18 season. He had a podium the following year in the Xfinity Series, his lone full season there. He also added wins in both series at Iowa Speedway, another short, flat track.

In other words, Byron can get around tracks like this, and his form is sick. His implied odds to win shouldn't be just 8.3%, and my model has him above 10%. I'm willing to bet him to win despite a mediocre track history.

Ross Chastain to Win (+1800)

If you look at Ross Chastain's record at New Hampshire, you'll think the same thing as with Byron: mid. But background on Chastain's career trajectory alters that.

Back in 2021, Chastain was still running for Chip Ganassi Racing. This was before his big breakout. He finished eighth in that year's New Hampshire race, and his ninth-place average running position there was -- at the time -- the best of his Cup Series career.

He was just okay here last year, notching another eighth-place finish. But he had a decent car in Phoenix this year with a ninth-place average running position, and he turned a fifth-place average running position into a third-place finish in Richmond.

Basically, I don't see any reason to believe that New Hampshire will be a below-average track for Chastain, and we'd need that in order to put his odds at +1800.

My model has Chastain at 6.9% to win, up from 5.3% implied. I agree with what the model is saying and think he's a quality outright prior to practice and qualifying.

Alex Bowman to Finish Top 10 (+175)

Alex Bowman's form since returning from his back injury has been booty. His best finish is 12th across six races, and he has had a bunch of incidents.

I think we're getting a big enough discount to overcome that.

Bowman's top-10 odds in my model are 45.1%, up from 36.4% implied. He's up there in large part thanks to quality runs on the short, flat tracks earlier in the year where he lodged finishes of 8th, 9th, and 11th.

Bowman's history in New Hampshire is just fine. He has only one career top-10, but that came in 2021. He was top-15 each of the four years before that, so it's not as if he's actively bad here.

In order to get Bowman's top-10 odds to +175, I'd need to ding him big time for his back injury. But the further he gets removed from it, the better you'd think he'd race. With a return to a more "normal" track, I'm fine betting on an improvement in form here.

Martin Truex Jr. Over Christopher Bell (+116)

Finally, a bet where I'm not actively fading the Toyotas.

Well, not all of them, at least. This time, I'm just fading a guy who has won a race at New Hampshire five of the past six years. What could go wrong?

I think Bell deserves the hype he's getting this week. He won this race last year and combined for four wins here between the Xfinity and Truck Series. This is his track.

But we can't dismiss Martin Truex Jr. You could argue it was Truex who should have won this race last year after he won the pole, won both stages, and led 172 of 301 laps. He just got caught behind a slower car on a restart, pushing him back to 11th and ending his shot at a win.

Plus, Truex's form right now is *chef's kiss*. He was runner-up in Nashville, finished top-five in Gateway and Charlotte, led 145 laps in Darlington, and won Dover. All of those tracks used the other rules package, but he also led 56 laps in Richmond earlier in the year.

Although this track favors Bell, form favors Truex. Thus, I think this matchup should be a toss-up at worst. My model has Truex slightly favored, so I'm happy to take the plus money even with how absurd Bell can be in New Hampshire.