New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction 9-28-23 MLB Picks

The Miami Marlins and the New York Mets meet Thursday in MLB action from Citi Field. This matchup will be the final outing in a three-game series. In the Wednesday doubleheader, the Mets took a blowout win in game one. As for the nightcap, Miami evened the series with a two-run victory. Check back all season long for free MLB picks at Sports Chat Place.

Miami Marlins 

After a postponement in the scheduled Tuesday opener of this set, we had a doubleheader on Wednesday. In game one the Marlins scored just twice on nine hits in an 11-2 loss. In game two Miami got home runs from both Jon Berti (two hits; two runs) and Jesus Sanchez in a 4-2 victory. 

Jesus Luzardo will take the mound for the Marlins in the Thursday finale. This year so far Luzardo is 10-9 with a 3.73 ERA in 31 starts. Over his last seven starts, Luzardo is 2-2 with a 3.82 ERA overall. 

Miami Marlins Team Facts

The Marlins have lost each of their last eight games at Citi Field following a win.
The underdogs have covered the run line in 12 of the Marlins' last 13 games.
The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last six games as road favorites.
The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last nine games as road favorites against National League opponents.

New York Mets

Over on the Mets’ side, in Wednesday’s game one matchup Pete Alonso posted four runs, four hits, two RBI and a homer in the blowout victory. In the nightcap New York’s Francisco Lindor managed a pair of solo home runs but not much else happened at the plate. 

It’ll be David Peterson in the starting role for the Mets on Thursday. In 2023 Peterson is 3-8 overall with a 5.37 ERA and 120 Ks in 104.0 innings. Peterson is 0-1 with a 4.89 ERA over his last seven starts. 

New York Mets Team Facts

The Mets have won each of their last 12 games against the Marlins following a loss.
The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as home underdogs.
The Mets have led after 7 innings in four of their last six games as home underdogs.
The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last four home games.
The Mets have led after 5 innings in four of their last six games as home underdogs.

Matchup/League Facts

The New York Mets rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (218).
The New York Mets rank 27th in the league for hits this season (1254).
The Miami Marlins rank 27th in the league for walks this season (420).
The Miami Marlins rank 26th in the league for RBI's this season (622).

ANDREW’S FREE PICK 

I’ll go Marlins in this one. Luzardo needs to have a good start, though. Back on September 11 versus Milwaukee, Luzardo had a rough loss with 5.0 innings, six earned, 10 hits and four walks. In his two starts since however, Luzardo is 1-0 with three earned in 11.0 innings. On Wednesday the Marlins had a pitching breakdown in game one, but the four runs on seven hits in the nightcap evened the series. If Luzardo can post a quality outing I like Miami to rally the offense behind him.