Phillies vs Padres prediction and odds for Wednesday, September 6 (Back Zack Wheeler)
After last night’s 8-0 win the San Diego Padres have won four of their last five, but at 66-74 it’s too little too late. The Philadelphia Phillies got hot at the right time and even after that loss are comfortably in the top National League Wild Card spot at 76-62.
This afternoon is the rubber match out in San Diego and the Phillies have their ace on the bump. Zack Wheeler will make his 28th start of the season and comes in with a 10-6 record and an ERA of 3.62. Wheeler will be opposed by 11-2 Michael Wacha who has a 2.85 ERA in 19 starts.
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Now, let’s take a look at the odds.
This is a stellar starting pitching matchup with Wheeler and Wacha on the mound. Zack Wheeler has a 3.13 xERA this season which is 89th percentile. He has a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 4.5% walk rate and a 5.4% barrel rate which is 85th percentile. Put more basically, he missed bats, doesn’t give free baserunners and doesn’t get hit hard or barreled up. He’s the ideal right handed power pitcher and despite his higher ERA is a much better pitcher than Michael Wacha.
Wacha has a 4.29 xERA which is 42nd percentile despite his 2.85 ERA and a 3.86 FIP. His strikeout rate is 22% with a walk rate of 8.0% and a barrel rate of 7.6%. Those are all right around 50th percentile in the MLB, so contrary to his 11-2 record and amazing ERA, he’s a perfectly average pitcher.
The Phillies also have the better lineup with Bryce Harper crushing the ball. It hurts that red-hot Trea Turner is on paternity leave, but with their massive advantage on the mound I have to take the Phillies as a very slight favorite on the road.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
