Prop bets for NC State football vs. Miami

NC State football is coming off an upset win over the Clemson Tigers and is looking to carry that momentum against Miami at home. As the Pack looks to gain ground in the ACC, here are some bets for the game.

NC State (+4.5) vs. Miami

The Wolfpack entered the game against Clemson as two-score underdogs, but that didn’t faze head coach Dave Doeren’s squad as his team pulled off a convincing win. The red-and-white was the more disciplined team, drawing fewer penalties and creating more turnovers than the Tigers. Winning the turnover battle and making fewer mistakes will be key if NC State wants to pull off another upset.

It has been a tumultuous season under Miami’s second-year head coach Mario Cristobal, even with his squad coming into the game with a 6-2 record. The Hurricanes were ranked No. 17 in the AP poll for week six, but the worst coaching gaffe of the season knocked his team out of the rankings — Cristobal decided to run the ball against Georgia Tech instead of kneeling the game out, and his running back fumbled, which cost Miami the game. 

Losing to Georgia Tech set the Hurricanes back, but they’ve since rebounded, winning back-to-back ACC games against Clemson and Virginia. Both wins came in overtime against teams that NC State beat in regulation. I find it hard to believe Miami is a four-point favorite coming into this game given what the Pack did at home against Clemson, so I expect NC State to cover and win the game.

Pick: NC State +4.5

Over/Under 45.5 total points

When betting on NC State football, the number one rule is to always bet the under. The under has hit in four of the last five games because the Wolfpack offense doesn’t show up or the defense shows out. The Pack is only allowing 18.8 points per game and scoring just 15.3 points per game in ACC play.

There is a chance this game could go over because the Hurricanes average 27 points per game in ACC play while giving up 27.5 points per game in conference games. Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke is enjoying a good season after last year’s disappointing campaign, so it’s crucial for the Pack defense to keep him in check. Although Miami can score the ball well, I expect this to be a low-scoring game, like most NC State games.

Pick: Under 45.5 points

Game props

Offensive coordinator Robert Anae has been preaching all season long that he wants his offense to create more explosive plays, and those desires came to fruition against Clemson. Freshman receiver Kevin Concepcion was the beneficiary of the biggest plays with a 50-yard run and a 72-yard touchdown catch. 

Explosive plays have been an issue on the other side of the ball for the Pack as it has given up explosive runs and catches consistently all season. Allowing these plays has been one of the Wolfpack defense’s only flaws, but it flipped the script against Clemson by not allowing one explosive play for a touchdown.

The red-and-white defense will have to be near perfect to keep Miami in check because it has a plethora of weapons that can break loose for big gains. I expect defensive coordinator Tony Gibson to implement a similar game plan he did against Clemson to limit explosive plays. 

Despite the offensive firepower the Hurricanes have, expect Concepcion to break off a longer run or pass for a touchdown.

Pick: NC State longest touchdown (+100)

In order for the Pack to pull off the upset against Miami, it will need to force turnovers like it did last week. The red-and-white intercepted Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik twice — one was returned for a touchdown and the other set up a touchdown drive.

Van Dyke has been careless with the football in his last two starts, throwing four interceptions and giving the opposing team good field position. The Wolfpack will put up points if it continues to put pressure on the opposing quarterback, especially with Van Dyke’s recent decision-making. Turnovers will give NC State great field position and many opportunities to punch the ball in the endzone.

Pick: NC State team total points: Over 15.5