Rangers vs. Mariners best bet and odds: Luis Castillo should cash his strikeout prop
A wild finish in the AL West forges on with tonight's battle between the Seattle Mariners and the Texas Rangers.
The pregame narrative: Texas can clinch a playoff spot by winning one of its final two games, while Seattle needs to win both (and get a bit of help) to advance. Luis Castillo is on the mound tonight for the Mariners, and the ace is worth targeting on the prop market.
MLB oddsas of 10:20 a.m. ET on 09/30/23.
Rangers vs. Mariners best bet
Best Bet: Castillo over 7.5 strikeouts (-115)
Tonight's strikeout line for Castillo is higher than his season average (6.7 Ks per start), but not by a terribly wide margin. And in a must-win matchup like this, we expect him to get every opportunity to stay in the game, thus increasing his chances of clearing this line.
As noted, Seattle absolutely needs a win to keep its season alive. Seattle is playing with a double-edged sword right now — a loss to Texas puts the Rangers in and keeps the Mariners out.
No one gives Seattle a better chance to win than Castillo. The Mariners are 10-1 in his past 11 starts, which helps explain why they are moneyline favourites tonight.
MLB oddsas of 10:20 a.m. ET on 09/30/23.
Castillo has pitched into the sixth inning or later in each of his past 13 starts, which is always a helpful sight for prop overs. If the right-hander can work deep into the game, he'll have a better chance at racking up Ks.
Sure enough, he's done well to get over 7.5 Ks in those past 13 outings. Castillo has cleared that line eight times, including each of his past four.
He also has a 27.5% K-rate against the Rangers' current lineup, per Baseball Savant, which is well above the league-average mark (22.7%).
The cherry on top here is that Castillo is pitching at home. T-Mobile Park is where he typically does his finest work.
Key stat: Castillo has an 11.1 K/9 at home versus an 8.7 K/9 on the road this season.
