Red Sox vs. Mets Prediction: MLB Betting Lines & Picks

Justin Turner brings a 15-game hitting streak into the Boston Red Sox’s (51-46) game versus the New York Mets (45-51) at 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, at Fenway Park.

The Mets (+104 underdog moneyline odds) are away versus the Red Sox (-123). The game’s total is set at 9.

The betting insights in the article below reflect odds as of July 22, 2023 at 9:15 AM ET. Ready to bet?

Red Sox vs Mets Betting Lines

Red Sox Betting Insights

• The Red Sox have won 24, or 54.5%, of the 44 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
• Boston is 18-12 this season when entering a game favored by -123 or more on the moneyline.
• The Red Sox have a 55.2% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• Boston and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 52 of 97 opportunities.
• The Red Sox are 49-48-0 ATS in their 97 games with a spread this season.

Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend

Mets Betting Insights

• The Mets have been underdogs in 32 games this season and have come away with the win 10 times (31.2%) in those contests.
• This year, New York has won two of 18 games when listed as at least +104 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Mets have an implied victory probability of 49% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
• New York and its opponents have hit the over in 40 of its 97 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
• The Mets have an against the spread record of 39-58-0 in 97 games with a line this season.

Mets Last 10 Games Trend

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Red Sox Probable Pitcher – James Paxton

• When Paxton starts, his team is 5-7-0 against the spread this season.
• The left-hander gave up six earned runs in three innings pitched on Saturday in his last outing, a matchup with the Chicago Cubs.
• Paxton has made eight starts of five or more innings in 11 chances this season, and averages 5.4 frames when he pitches.
• He has two appearances this season with zero earned runs allowed out of his 11 chances this season.
• When Paxton starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 2-6.
• Paxton’s team has won six of his 11 starts this season.
• In Paxton’s 12 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over seven times.

Red Sox Relief Pitchers

Mets Probable Pitcher – Max Scherzer

• The Mets are sending Scherzer (8-3) out for his 18th start of the season. He is 8-3 with a 3.99 ERA and 107 strikeouts over 94 2/3 innings pitched.
• In his most recent appearance on Sunday, the right-hander threw seven scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers while surrendering one hit.
• Scherzer will aim to last five or more innings for his seventh straight appearance. He’s averaging 5.5 innings per outing.
• He has made four appearances this season in which he did not give up an earned run.
• The Mets have been the underdog on the moneyline in three of Scherzer’s starts this season, and they went 1-2 in those games.
• Scherzer’s team has an 11-6 record in his starts this season.
• Scherzer has had 17 starts with a total this season, and the teams combined to go over the total in nine of those matchups.

Mets Relief Pitchers

Red Sox Hitting Trends

• The Red Sox are 22-9 this season in games when they hit at least two long balls.
• Boston is 23-9 in games this season when it has had five or more extra-base hits.
• The team has notched at least eight hits in 69 games this season, and is 42-27 in those contests.
• Boston has a 42-10 record in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
• The Red Sox are 12-10 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Mets Hitting Trends

• They’ve hit two or more homers in 31 games this season and are 16-15 in those matchups.
• New York has gone 10-4 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
• They have a record of 34-19 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
• In 49 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 34-15.
• They have won 13 of their 23 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Red Sox vs. Mets Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Red Sox (-123)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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