Red Sox vs Rangers Odds, Picks, & Predictions

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18 September 2023

Red Sox vs Rangers Odds, Picks, & Predictions

The Red Sox and Rangers are both reeling from a sweep and will look to get back in the win column Monday. Kutter Crawford and Jordan Montgomery will take the hump for their respective teams, and our MLB picks expect rough days for both hurlers.

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The Texas Rangers will look to pick up the pieces after a sweep at the hands of the Guardians when they host the Boston Red Sox on Monday night.

With Jordan Montgomery on the hill, will he be able to help his team land a much-needed victory, or, will he struggle against a competent Boston lineup?

Let’s break down the MLB odds for this AL matchup as I bring you my favorite MLB picks for the Red Sox vs. Rangers on September 18.

Red Sox vs Rangers odds

Red Sox vs Rangers predictions

Jordan Montgomery is once again realizing the hard way that the American League is no picnic for a lefty pitcher. The former Yankee has a 3.59 ERA in eight outings since joining the Texas Rangers, but he has struggled in September with a 6.06 ERA in three starts.

Montgomery’s underlying numbers are not very impressive either. His .253 xBA matches his career average, which is below the league norm, and so is his .409 xSLG. Montgomery’s xERA has also been hovering around four runs for the third consecutive year.

I don’t see anything remarkable about Montgomery, and that makes me wary of him facing a Boston Red Sox lineup that can hit and that has a 100 wRC+ against southpaws.

I’m also not too keen on Kutter Crawford having a walk in the park today as Texas is good at hitting fastballs and cutters — ranking 11th and third respectively in run value per 100 pitches. I’ll get into that more in a little bit, but considering the Rangers have some big boppers who can hit his arsenal, and given he had a 4.73 ERA in August and owns a 6.48 ERA this month, I think he’s going to cough up at least a few runs.

That leads me to the Over, and I’ll play it up to nine runs.

My best bet: Over 8.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Red Sox vs Rangers same-game parlay

Over 8.5

Turner 2+ TB

Seager 2+ TB

As you may guess, I'm going to be filling out my same-game parlay here with some batting props given I think this will be a high-scoring game.

I'm going with two trustworthy players to rack up some bases. While you may want to call me a square for going with arguably the two best hitters on either side, I think the rationale for each is very sound.

First of all, while Justin Turner has slowed down just a little bit in September, he’s still mashing lefties as he has for the entirety of his career. The former Dodger is hitting .287 and slugging .544 against southpaws this year which should put him in a solid spot against Montgomery.

As for Corey Seager, he has been the best hitter on the team against cutters with a run value of 3.42, and he’s also second to only Mitch Garver when it comes to hitting four seamers. Those are the two main deliveries that Crawford offers, and that will put him in a solid spot to stay hot.

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Red Sox vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Rangers really should not be such massive favorites here with Montgomery on the bump, and with that I’m forced to lean toward Boston if I’m to take a side. You can actually make the argument that Crawford is the better pitcher here, not Montgomery, considering his expected ERA sits at 3.62, his walk rate at just 7.1%, and his strikeout rate a solid 24.6%.

While Crawford hasn’t rolled up many ground balls, his ability to get swings and misses should aid him here in Texas, and Montgomery has given up more contact this season which might be a detriment to a guy trying to get outs in a hitter-friendly park in Texas.

Over at DraftKings, the bets are split on the total with 91% of the money coming in on the Over, which likely means a rather sizable bet has been placed on that selection. The Red Sox have garnered just 28% of the tickets for the moneyline in this one but account for 32% of the handle. That lends some credence to taking Boston to pull the upset.

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Trend to know

The Boston Red Sox have hit the game total Over in 25 of their last 44 games (+8.00 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Rangers

Red Sox vs Rangers game info

Starting pitchers

Kutter Crawford (6-7, 4.26 ERA): The 27-year-old righty has been something of a bright spot for the Red Sox for most of the year, but the wheels began to fall off in August. Still, his expected numbers remain solid and he looked good last time out against the Yankees, allowing just one run over 4 2/3 innings with seven strikeouts.

Jordan Montgomery (9-11, 3.47 ERA): The lefty is coming off an impressive outing against the Blue Jays which saw him spin seven shutout innings, but his ERA for the month still stands at 6.06 on account of two terrible performances against the A’s and Twins in previous weeks.