Rugby World Cup betting tips: South Africa v Ireland preview and best bets

Rugby World Cup tips: South Africa v Ireland

2pts Ireland to beat South Africa at 5/4 (bet365)

2pts South Africa (-1) first-half handicap at evens (Unibet)

1pt South Africa/Ireland in HT/FT betting at 9/1 (Betfred)

South Africa v Ireland

• 2000 BST, Saturday September 23 – ITV

If you applied Rassie Erasmus’ traffic light communication system to the first-ever World Cup clash between South Africa and Ireland from a betting perspective, it would be on amber and veering towards red, but definitely not green, despite that being the favoured colour of the teams on show. This is the type of match where it is best to proceed with caution, something that neither sets of players do. Expect ‘Full Metal Jacket’ mode for as physical a match as you’re likely to see for a long time.

Also, don’t automatically assume there will be cards as both teams have been ‘on point’ in their discipline. That will be tested in the heat of battle, obviously, and referee Ben O’Keeffe will no doubt be central to the narrative of the match; however, both teams are extremely well-drilled in keeping on the right side of the officials. Peter O’Mahony’s yellow card against Tonga was Ireland’s first for over a year and their ratio over the last two years is around 1:9, while South Africa have managed to keep 15 men on the pitch in each of their last five Tests.

In matches as tight as this one promises to be, the venue could be a factor. Okay, so Australia v Georgia is an outlier but the Stade de France is only being used sparingly for the big games before the business end of the World Cup kicks in, and they don’t get much bigger than the meeting of the top two sides in the world.

Stade de France is a venue where South Africa have fond Rugby World Cup memories. The Springboks beat England 15-6 there in the 2007 final, having won two matches in St-Denis earlier in the tournament. It was also the setting for their remarkable 1999 quarter-final win over England, in which Jannie de Beer kicked a tournament-record five drop goals.

While South Africa clearly enjoy playing there – they have won their last six matches in the Paris suburbs – Ireland have a dismal record at France’s home ground of three wins, one draw and 10 defeats, all of them against Les Bleus. Ireland won 19-16 the last time they played South Africa but that was at their Aviva Stadium fortress and having kicked off with two easy wins against Romania and Tonga in Bordeaux and Nantes, it will be interesting to see how they respond to the new challenge in front of them.

Having crunched the numbers, there was very little to chose between Ireland and South Africa 10 months ago, not only on the scoreboard but also in a lot of the match metrics – set-piece efficiency, ruck speed, number of carries, tackles etc – and the tight handicap line reflects that this time around. Even the two starting line-ups were very similar to what they are this Saturday. But there was one key difference – Ireland took their chances far better, scoring double the number of points when visiting the opposition 22. Ireland came away with an average of 3.2 from their six visits, while South Africa’s return was just 1.6 points from 10.

Of the two teams, South Africa have arguably evolved more as a team in-between fixtures, their back play is more threatening for one and they are far less reliant on a pick-and-go carrying strategy. This, however, will be a game where space is at a premium, one where defence is king, and it is the side that kicks its goals and takes it chances who will come out on top.

In Johnny Sexton, Ireland have a proven performer in front of the posts whereas Manie Libbok, for all his no-look kick try assists, still has Springbok supporters hiding behind the couch, unable to watch, whenever he plants the ball down on the kicking tee. The absence of the world’s best hooker Malcolm Marx from South Africa’s front-row cannot be overlooked either.

South Africa’s first-half resilience – they have prevented the opposition from scoring a try against them in the first half of their last six matches – may be enough for them to enjoy a narrow lead at half-time so if anything the first-half handicap is worth looking at and any sort of advantage for South Africa would be a bonus.

South Africa got away with their 6-1 bench split between forwards and backs earlier in the tournament but in a match as attritional as this one is going to be, they might not be so fortunate with back-line injuries as the game wears on and it’s our belief that Ireland, whose match-day 23 is stronger than last November if anything, will do enough in the second 40 to win narrowly and enjoy a rare moment of glory in Paris.

Posted at 0945 BST on 22/09/23

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