Spurs vs Clippers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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29 October 2023

Spurs vs Clippers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Victor Wembanyama is already causing a stir in the NBA, and the Clippers have little choice but to try and attack him in the paint tonight. Our NBA betting picks sense a solid prop opportunity on the Spurs star as a result.

Sunday, October 29 features a battle of San Antonio Spurs superstars past and present. It will be rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama taking on Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers.

The Clippers are a talented, veteran team, and most perilous of all — they’re finally (mostly) healthy. As a result, they're sizable NBA odds favorites.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Spurs vs. Clippers believe Wembanyama will rack up blocks against an L.A. team playing in tight spacing.

Spurs vs Clippers odds

Spurs vs Clippers predictions

When asking someone to name contemporary small ball teams, the Kawhi Leonard and Paul George Los Angeles Clippers are usually one of the first listed. And for most of their four-year tenure in L.A., that’s been true.

While they’ve always had a traditional center in Ivica Zubac in the rotation, at their best, and at their core, they wanted to downsize at the five in exchange for shooting.

But that’s not really the case anymore. Not only does the current Clippers starting five prevent them from playing five out, it features two complete non-shooters in Mason Plumlee and Russell Westbrook.

This Clippers team is going to have to score a lot more in and around the paint, and that opens up opportunities for Victor Wembanyama to put his stamp on this game at the defensive end.

Through two games, Wemby has been relatively quiet in terms of blocks after making several highlight plays during the preseason, but that has only served to depress this prop. The potential is clear as day for Victor to be one of, if not the greatest, rim protectors of all time.

His unique combination of size, skill, length, and anticipation make him a game-changing defensive force at the basket. While the Spurs are playing him as a forward for now, that allows him to rotate and make help plays around the rim without having to take the physical beating from traditional centers as his body continues to fill out.

And the thing about Victor playing as a help defender is that just by virtue of his size and length, he’s always in help position even when defending his own man. With weak spacing and Victor’s immense potential, I love his blocks prop at significant plus money value.

My best bet: Victor Wembanyama Over 2.5 blocks (+155 at bet365)

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Spurs vs Clippers same-game parlay

Victor Wembanyama Over 2.5 blocks

Under 229

Clippers moneyline

In addition to liking Wemby’s chances at having three or more blocks, I’m taking the Under at 229 and the Clippers moneyline to round out my same-game parlay for Sunday.

I think this total is a bit of an overreaction to the offensive performances the Clippers and Spurs have put together so far. I would guess that San Antonio still ends up with a Bottom-5 offense this season, and because of Wemby, begins to hang their hat on the defensive end more and more.

The Clippers have offensive talent, but the on-court fit of their best players is far from ideal in terms of spacing.

Still, while I’m not confident that the Clippers can cover this sizeable spread, I would be a touch shocked if they outright lost. They’re still starting two of the 15 best players in basketball, and Westbrook has instilled a competitive fire in them that they’ve been desperately missing.

So for the final leg of this SGP, I like the Clippers' moneyline at -395 to round out this parlay and get it to +430.

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Spurs vs Clippers and Over/Under analysis

Saturday’s Spurs vs. Clippers game opened with Los Angeles giving between -8.5 and -9. The Clippers have had so many disappointing seasons in the Kawhi and PG era that it’s easy to forget how potent this team can be at full strength.

The Spurs are full of young and interesting players to surround Wemby with, but they’re far from being a complete team. There are going to growing pains, and defending a team with multiple elite wing scorers is an early test for this young Spurs squad.

The Clippers were perfectly middling against the spread last season overall and returned most of their key rotation players in major roles. Their 43-44 ATS record and their failure to close out the win against the Utah Jazz on Friday doesn’t fill me with great confidence even with their obvious talent advantage at nearly a 10-point spread.

But I’m also hesitant to bank on a Spurs team so obviously still figuring themselves out. The so-called “tall ball” lineup the Spurs have been starting with Jeremy Sochan as the nominal point guard is an interesting thought experiment and might bear fruit down the line, but for right now it’s woefully short on passing. And good passing will be key to getting Victor going on offense at this stage in his career.

Oddsmakers are expecting this to be a fairly high-scoring game, with totals opening between 229.5 and 230.5. Some early betting on the Under has seen that come down just a touch, and I think rightly so. The rim protection that Wemby provides is going to be difficult for this Clippers team that now runs with so many non-shooters in their rotation.

Of course, Kawhi and PG could both go off, as there aren’t that many strong perimeter defenders on the Spurs either. It will be interesting to see if the Clippers decide to guard Wemby with Kawhi, or perhaps Robert Covington, and dare him to post up or shoot over the top. He hasn’t been super efficient through two career games, but I do believe if presented with such a size mismatch he can find a way to score, particularly in transition and off of lobs.

Both of the Clippers and Spurs' two games so far have seen the Over cash, but I think this line is too high. I’d lean Under at this price.