Spurs vs Hawks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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15 January 2024

Spurs vs Hawks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

While Wemby's minutes have taken a slight dip since returning from injury, his production — particularly on defense — has increased. Read our NBA betting picks below to find out what that means for Monday's matchup with the Hawks.

It’s often said that not all wins are created equal, but seldom is the opposite pointed out. But it is true, that not all losses are created equal, and some are so bad they hold the potential to upend a team’s season and erode the very fabric of its long-term identity.

Mostly those kinds of losses are tied to playoff collapses, but in the case of the Atlanta Hawks, it took the form of a desultory blowout loss at home to the lowly Wizards. The final score was 127-99, a loss so bad that it might be the nail in the coffin for this disaster of a Hawks season.

Their opponent on Monday, January 15, the San Antonio Spurs are having objectively a much worse season. They too have seriously underperformed even the modest expectations that most assigned to them, but the vibes in San Antonio by comparison are high, morale is steady, and they can see a light at the end of the tunnel.

Will Atlanta bounce back against San Antonio or will they slip further into the mire? My free NBA picks for Monday, January 15 believe Victor Wembanyama’s minutes restriction has played a key role in making him a more productive player.

Spurs vs Hawks odds

Spurs vs Hawks predictions

The decision to start Jeremy Sochan at point guard and the decision not to start Victor Wembanyama at center. These two choices scuttled the opening third of the San Antonio Spurs’ season, and a third event, Wemby’s ankle injury, threatened to kill it in the crib.

However, Sochan is no longer running point in any meaningful sense, Victor is now playing center full-time, and the fallout from his injury has had an unexpected beneficial impact. When Wembanyama stepped on a ball boy's foot three weeks ago, it seemed as if the Spurs’ season was well and truly lost. Instead, Wemby has been better than ever.

Gregg Popovich said coming into the season he didn’t want to overcoach Wemby, that the Spurs didn’t want to put any limits on his play, and that they were taking an observational role as they figured out what he excels at and what he needed to work on. In theory, freedom is a good thing for a young player, but too much freedom can breed paralysis and stagnation.

The Spurs, as a whole, have floundered with that freedom. It takes the right amount of structure to guide development on a meaningful and productive path, and so it has been with Wembanyama.

Wemby has been thriving with reduced minutes and a more clarified role as the Spurs starting center. While he’s anything but traditional, playing him in his conventional defensive role has seen him level up his consistency and effectiveness.

Victor hasn’t played in a back-to-back since he turned his ankle even though there's real skepticism that his minutes limit has anything to do with injury at this point. I think more than anything, it's about his energy and conditioning.

It's hard for most NBA centers to play at the highest level of impact for more than 30 minutes. By reigning in Wemby’s minutes on the court, he’s made a strong effort to be much more impactful during the times he’s on the floor.

It shows up all over his statistical profile, where he’s more productive in just about every way in fewer minutes than he was before. Critically for this game against the Atlanta Hawks, his blocks have seen a big jump not just on a per-minute basis, but overall.

Wemby was averaging three blocks per game in 30.5 minutes before his ankle injury and the minutes restriction that followed. In the 10 games since, he’s averaging 3.6 blocks per game in just 24.3 minutes of action.

These Victor Wembanyama odds don’t fully reflect his leap in per-minute production, making this my favorite bet for Monday’s game.

My best bet: Victor Wembanyama Over 2.5 blocks (-120 at BetRivers)

Spurs vs Hawks same-game parlay

Victor Wembanyama Over 2.5 blocks

Victor Wembanyama to make 1+ threes

Spurs +7.5

My same-game parlay for Monday is doubling down on my Wemby play with a bet on him adding at least one made three in addition to three blocks against the Hawks. I’m also backing the Spurs to cover at +7.5 because I think they’re playing much better than they were to begin the year.

Nobody would accuse the Spurs this season of being a highly functional basketball team, but through all the losing, they’ve remained relatively coherent and together, which is more than you can say about the Hawks. Atlanta is a shocking 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games.

While the Hawks might play well enough to avoid the stink of repeat embarrassment, that is not a high bar to clear. Basketball is a team sport, first and foremost, and that means trust at a premium.

Trust that your teammate will hit the shot if you make the pass, and trust that you’ll get the ball back if you give it up. Trust that if you work to make the right rotation on defense, the low man will slide in to guard the rim.

If there’s a fundamental breakdown in trust that your teammates will do certain things, they will simply stop happening. There’s reason to suspect at this point the threat of imminent trade rumors involving most of the Hawks roster has all but erased that trust.

These guys aren’t playing for each other anymore. They’re playing out the string on a dead season that is just waiting to receive its formal autopsy.

In terms of efficiency, Wemby has not been a great perimeter shooter this season, but is a willing one with a smooth release, and that is more than enough to justify the final leg of my SGP.

The Hawks play a traditional, ground-bound center in Capela, and he’ll be the one largely tasked with guarding Wembanyama. Pulling Capela out of the paint will be a boon to Devin Vassell and the other Spurs guards, and it'll be easy for Victor to get clean looks with the somewhat plodding Capela trying to close out to him.

He’s averaging five 3-point attempts per game in January, and that number is depressed because of how badly they blew out the Hornets. Wemby has also had at least one made three in nine of his last eleven games.

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Spurs vs Hawks spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for Spurs vs. Hawks opened with Atlanta -8.5, rose as high as -9.5, but has since dipped to -7.5 at most sportsbooks. If this was being based on season-long performance, that line would be generous to the Spurs.

However, San Antonio may have just turned the corner. Not only are they 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games, but they’ve also had a legitimate Top-10 defense for the last two weeks, per Cleaning the Glass.

They’ve approached average on offense as well. Those numbers are bolstered by wins against some bad teams but given where the Spurs have been most of the year, that is genuinely promising.

The Hawks are 3-14 ATS at home team this season. That is the worst mark of any team in the Association, and they’ve been almost completely healthy. I’m shorting the Hawks until further notice.

The total for Monday opened as high as 249.5 but has tapered off significantly since with most NBA odds offering this between 245 and 245.5.

The Hawks are getting a lot of credit for their offense here, but they have little to back that up in terms of recent performances. The Over is 14-8 when Atlanta is coming off a loss this season, but their offense has been Bottom 10 in the NBA bad for going on 10 games now.

The Spurs' defense has also made huge strides in recent weeks. They haven’t played in a game with a total this high since late December. I think the Spurs can do enough to justify playing the Under here, and I strongly considered it for the final leg of my same-game parlay.