Steve Palmer's The American Express final-round golf betting tips and predictions
Where to watch The American Express
Best bets
Sam Burns to win The American Express
3pts 9-4 general
Patrick Cantlay to win 6.26pm threeball
3pts 7-10 bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes
Sam Burns and Justin Thomas dual forecast
1pt 17-2 bet365
Story so far
Nick Dunlap has put himself in position to become the first amateur to win a PGA Tour event since Phil Mickelson did in 1991. Dunlap, a 20-year-old stud from the University of Alabama, fired a sensational third-round 60 to go three shots clear in The American Express.
Dunlap, a pre-tournament 300-1 chance, is a best-price 6-4 to turn his advantage into an historic victory. Two American Ryder Cup stars are in hot pursuit though – Sam Burns is alone in second place, with Justin Thomas a further shot behind in third.
Burns is biggest at 9-4 to secure a sixth PGA Tour title, while Thomas can be backed at 4-1 for his 16th. The players have completed 18 holes at each of the three courses used for this event, with those making the cut gathering at the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West for the closing round.
Dunlap, Burns and Thomas are scheduled to tee off at 7.02pm UK and Ireland time in the final threeball. A sunny, calm day is forecast.
The American Express leaderboard
-27 Nick Dunlap
-24 Sam Burns
-23 Justin Thomas
-21 Christiaan Bezuidenhout
-20 Eric Cole, Si Woo Kim, Adam Hadwin, JT Poston, Xander Schauffele
-19 Jimmy Stanger, Patrick Cantlay
-18 Michael Kim, Kevin Yu, Alexander Bjork, Sungjae Im, Ben Griffin
Best odds for The American Express
6-4 N Dunlap, 9-4 S Burns, 4 J Thomas, 22 X Schauffele, 33 C Bezuidenhout, 35 JT Poston, E Cole, 45 S W Kim, A Hadwin, 50 P Cantlay, 150 S Im, 300 bar
The American Express final-round predictions
The American Express traditionally serves up a feast of birdies, with every winning total ending up between 20 under par and 28 under par since the tournament was reduced to a four-round event in 2012. Scott Dunlap needs only to card a Sunday 70 to break the AmEx scoring record.
That could be easier said than done, as the amateur heads into the highest pressure round of his young life. He is the reigning US Amateur champion, so has proved his mettle in the unpaid ranks, but Dunlap will tee off alongside two hardened professionals in California on Sunday.
How Dunlap handles the situation is the key to how this event unfolds from here. If he stays cool, the frontrunner could set a mark which would essentially eliminate a lot of the chasing pack. If he stalls though, which seems more likely, anyone with nine shots will still feel they have title ambitions.
Dunlap, who is bidding to become the second youngest PGA Tour winner in the last 90 years, makes no appeal at 6-4. His Saturday heroics came at La Quinta Country Club, but the Pete Dye Stadium Course applies much more pressure from tee to green. Scorecards can be dented at the Stadium Course and mishaps seems likely given Dunlap's inexperience.
The youngster is clearly set for a wonderful career – he and Tiger Woods are the only players to have won both the US Junior and the US Amateur – but this is a serious early test of his temperament. Burns and Thomas represent better value.
Two of Racing Post Sport's pre-tournament recommendations – Eric Cole and JT Poston – are tied for fifth place. They are both still well in the hunt if Dunlap wobbles, but it is probably sensible to get one of either Burns or Thomas on the team at this stage, given the shape of the leaderboard.
Backing both Burns and Thomas – at 9-4 and 4-1 – is a perfectly acceptable tactic for those with deep pockets. Preference between the two is for Burns, who carded four rounds in the 60s in The Sentry the week before last to ease his way into the season.
Burns is a much more regular visitor to this tournament than Thomas. Burns, who finished sixth in 2020 and 11th last year, won the WGC-Match Play last March and should be approaching this final round with confidence. Thomas is winless since the 2022 US PGA. The Burns-Thomas dual forecast looks a big price at 17-2.
Patrick Cantlay has a history of finishing with a flourish in this home-state gig. The Californian looks the most solid threeball bet on the card against Jimmy Stanger and Michael Kim (6.26pm UK and Ireland time).
