Best bets and expert tips for Champions Day at Flemington
News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Champions Day meeting at Flemington.
BEST BET
MURAMASA (Race 4, No.9)
Muramasa has been a revelation this spring with two impressive wins. He’s up in trip but expecting him to see out the 2600m and score again.
VALUE BET
RIVER NOIRE (Race 9, No.11)
River Noire was grabbed on the line at Sale but she’s hard-fit and racing in great heart. She can spring a minor surprise in the last.
EARLY QUADDIE
1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 10/6, 11, 12, 13, 15/2, 9/1, 4
$100 flexi for 83 per cent
BIG6
2, 9/1, 4/6, 7, 8, 9/1, 2, 6, 7/4, 9, 10, 11/9, 10, 11
$100 flexi for 13 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 5: 6, 7, 8, 9
Race 6: 1, 2, 6, 7
Race 7: 4, 9, 10, 11
Race 8: 9, 10, 11
$100 flexi for 52 per cent
RACE 1: 12:40PM AUSTRALIAN CHILDHOOD FOUNDATION TROPHY (1600m)
A good track will prevail for the final day of the Flemington carnival. Interesting start to the day but VON HAUKE (6) can win the first after three solid runs this time in. He’ll get a soft run from barrier two and will be hard to hold out. SEQUESTERED (7) is racing in great form in Sydney and won’t be far away. EXCELLERATION (4) is a smart type that can show up here fresh. TYPHOON HARMONY (8) will be suited up to 1600m after two sound efforts this time in.
SUGGESTED BET: Von Hauke to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Von Hauke $5.50 – $4.
RACE 2: 1:15PM LISTED RESIMAX GROUP ALWAYS WELCOME STAKES (1200m)
Tricky race but LOMBARDO (1) could be ready to fire after two decent runs in good races this time in and he likes 1200m. PARISAL (5) wasn’t disgraced at Group 2 level in Sydney and will find this easier. VONGOLE (10) is up in class but has a solid first-up record and won’t be far away. UNUSUAL CULTURE (8) has a good first-up record and has placed at both 1200m runs.
SUGGESTED BET: Lombardo each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: It’sourtime $7.50 – $5.50.
RACE 3: 1:50PM LISTED THE AMANDA ELLIOTT (1400m)
One of the harder races of the day with many winning chances so not a lot of confidence here. EUGENIUS (13) could show up at odds after bolting in at Mornington, which followed a solid run at The Valley. ALSONSO (12) broke through in emphatic fashion last time and could continue to improve. REGAL ZEUS (11) is a developing type that will improve on a sound first-up run. MAH ALI (15) was OK over 1600m last Saturday and could place.
SUGGESTED BET: Small bet on Eugenius to place.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Schwarz $3.70 – $2.70.
RACE 4: 2:30PM GROUP 3 QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (2600m)
An even edition of the Queen Elizabeth Stakes but MURAMASA (9) is a four-year-old on the up that is racing in great form this time in. He’s on trial at 2600m but ran fifth in the Victoria Derby over 2500m as a three-year-old. LUNCIES (4) ran on well when close-up in the Bendigo Cup and has placed at all runs this trip. REGAL POWER (7) led and did a good job in the Moonee Valley Cup and will be at peak fitness for this. DUKE DE SESSA (2) will find this easier than the Caulfield Cup.
SUGGESTED BET: Muramasa to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Duke De Sessa $8 – $4.60.
RACE 5: 3:10PM GROUP 2 TAB MATRIARCH STAKES (2000m)
Not the easiest edition of the Matriarch Stakes but STEINEM (4) will be fitter for three runs back and will be better for her fourth in the Coongy Handicap at Caulfield. MUSTANG VALLEY (1) wasn’t disgraced in the Crystal Mile but is a 2000m winner that can improve. AFFAIRE A SUIVRE (3) can improve sharply on her first two spring runs and is a Group 1 winner over this trip. THALASSOPHILE (5) did well in a leader-dominated race at The Valley and more ground could suit.
SUGGESTED BET: Steinem each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Deny Knowledge $8 – $7.
RACE 6: 3:50PM GROUP 1 DARLEY CHAMPIONS SPRINT (1200m)
Cracking edition of the Champions Sprint with the super line-up of mares having the advantage here. IMPERATRIZ (8) has been dominant in Melbourne in the spring winning three straight races at The Valley and she’s had a couple of looks at the straight. IN SECRET (7) loves the straight and did a great job in The Everest. She can win. ESPIONA (9) got the money in The Invitation and won’t mind the drop to 1200m here. BELLA NIPOTINA (6) beat a quality field in Sydney last Saturday and should go well again.
SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 6, 7, 8, 9.
TAB MARKET MOVER: In Secret $5 – $4.40.
RACE 7: 4:30PM GROUP 1 KENNEDY CHAMPIONS MILE (1600m)
A small field but a terrific line-up will contest the Champions Mile. MR BRIGHTSIDE (1) was narrowly beaten in the Cox Plate but has a terrific record over 1600m. ALLIGATOR BLOOD (2) was terrific at The Valley and won this race last year dropping back from the Cox Plate. FANGIRL (6) had no luck in the Cox Plate and must be respected. PRIDE OF JENNI (7) gave a great sight to score in the Empire Rose Stakes last Saturday and could be hard to run down again.
SUGGESTED BET: Mr Brightside to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Alligator Blood $3.50 – $3.40.
RACE 8: 5:10PM GROUP 1 TAB CHAMPIONS STAKES (2000m)
Happy to back WEST WIND BLOWS (8) to win the Champions Stakes after his two outstanding efforts in the Turnbull Stakes and Caulfield Cup. He’ll get every chance from barrier two. PROWESS (11) was too good over 1600m second-up and is still on the way up. ATISHU (10) chased well in the Empire Rose Stakes and won’t be far away. DUAIS (9) had no luck in the Cox Plate and won last year’s Australian Cup over this course.
SUGGESTED BET: West Wind Blows to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Prowess $9 – $5.50.
RACE 9: 5:50PM WORLD HORSE RACING GRAND HANDICAP (1100m)
Extremely difficult finish to the carnival but RIVER NOIRE (11) is consistent, drawn the right part of the track and isn’t in badly after apprentice Carleen Hefel’s claim. KIN (9) raced well as a three-year-old last season and can show something fresh. REY MAGNERIO (10) impressed with his easy win last start and should be thereabouts. LOUNGE BAR RUBI (3) is talented and could fire first-up.
SUGGESTED BET: River Noire each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: News $8.50 – $7.
