Thunder vs Kings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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14 December 2023

Thunder vs Kings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Tonight's West Coast NBA action takes us to Sacramento where the Kings host the visiting OKC Thunder. The Thunder have been playing some exceptional basketball of late and our NBA picks expect their form to hold vs. the Kings.

Two of the hottest upstarts in the Western Conference will do battle on tonight in Sacramento as the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have won four of five, visit the Sacramento Kings, who have taken three of their last five.

Will the Kings’ offense continue to roll, or will Oklahoma City’s stout defense have something to say here and defy the NBA odds?

Let's get right into it with my in-depth preview and free NBA picks for Thunder vs Kings on Thursday, December 14.

Thunder vs Kings odds

Thunder vs Kings predictions

At this point, we know what the Sacramento Kings want to do offensively. They will shoot from deep early and often, ranking third in three-point frequency according to Cleaning the Glass and third in shot attempts per possession from the long mid-range. Teams with a weak perimeter defense will be behind the proverbial eight-ball every time against Sacramento, and if you can stop this offense you have a chance to win given the state of its defense.

Well, the Oklahoma City Thunder not only have the league’s seventh-best 3-point defense in the NBA but they also have shown an affinity for scoring around the rim, shooting a decent enough 65.2% from that zone and making a point to take the ball inside whenever given the chance.

The Thunder grade out as the sixth most efficient offense in basketball and over the past five games have scored 120.4 points per 100 possessions to the Kings’ 115.6 — a sign that Sacramento is beginning to slow down on that end after a hot start.

With no significant injuries to speak of on either side, we can take these two teams and their respective forms at face value. I see the Thunder as the more dangerous team in this matchup given they can exploit Domantas Sabonis’ weak defense down low, and it’s also worth pointing out here that while the Kings receive a slight bump of two percentage points in 3-point shooting at home, the Thunder have shot a scorching 43.4% on the road this year to just 35.9% at home.

To no one’s surprise, then, the Thunder have gone 7-2-1 against the spread away from Oklahoma City this season and are a near-perfect 4-0-1 ATS as road underdogs with just one push against the Timberwolves last month.

The last meeting between these two teams may not have gone OKC’s way, but I expect big things here on Thursday. Taking the points here is the right move.

My best bet: Thunder +2 (-110 at DraftKings)

Thunder vs Kings same-game parlay

Thunder +2

Isaiah Joe Over 1.5 three-pointers made

The Thunder shot just 23.3% from three last time out against the Kings in Sacramento in what was a statistical anomaly given the state of their 3-point shooting numbers away from home. On top of that, this game was one of the best defensive showings Sacramento has had all season – two things I think will correct themselves here on Thursday.

With that, my first leg will be dedicated to the Thunder’s greatest volume shooter from outside, Isaiah Joe. He’s shot a blistering 48.1% from three on the road this season and has taken a team-high five threes per game over the last five. He knocked down three triples the last time these teams played in Sacramento, and while I do like going for the alternative number I’d rather play it safe given Joe has only made three 3-pointers twice since Nov. 22. He’s gone for two or more threes in nine of his last 12 contests.

Then, I am going to opt for an alt number here on Chet Holmgren, who has scored 15 points in eight of his last 10 games. The Kings rank just 26th in the NBA with a poor 68.1% of shots falling within four feet of the rim this year according to Cleaning the Glass, which should open up a huge advantage for the big man inside.

This is a safe, sensible same-game parlay, but if you want to go up to three or more threes for Joe to get some better odds, I can get behind that.

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Thunder vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis

Four of the Thunder’s last five games have hit the Over, and six of the Kings’ last eight have gone Over as well. With that said, a total of 244 is a rather ridiculous one and represents the highest total in a game played this season by either side.

That certainly makes you think, as does the fact that the Kings have ranked just 11th in pace over the last five games and 11th for the season. Sacramento’s offense has also waned a bit in recent games, and the Thunder boast one of the strongest defenses around, particularly on the perimeter.

With that, I’m forced to lean Under here. That’s scary, considering when a number just seems far too high you almost always want to play it, and it’s worth noting that while 38% of the bets have come in on the Under here at DraftKings just 12% of the cash is on the Under. That’s why I’d prefer to just play the Thunder, and there is indeed more cash (61%) than total bets (51%) on the road team here.

Thunder vs Kings betting trend to know

The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 77 games (+21.40 Units / 17% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Kings.

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