Thursday Glorious Goodwood Betting Tips, Prediction, Odds

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Thursday Glorious Goodwood Betting Tips

1:50 Goodwood 

Silver Sword – 0.5pt Each Way – 18/1 (Bet365, 5 places)  

My first selection on Day 3 is Silver Sword for the up-and-coming Dylan Cunha yard. 

We backed this horse at Epsom on Derby Day but he bumped into the smart Torito who is now rated 105 and who finished 4 in the Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) next time out. Therefore, there is plenty of credit in that defeat, with the rest of the field beaten in behind.  

We stuck with Silver Sword next time out at Pontefract after he failed to get in the Golden Gates at Royal Ascot and he could not have won any easier; achieving an impressive RPR of 99 off his mark of 86. 

The handicapper has bumped him up 7lb to 93 as a result of his win but I still think he is unexposed and improving and he could well be up to defying that rise in the weights. On performance and pedigree, I think the return to 1m2f is bonus for him as well.  

The down side for me is the ground, as very testing conditions are a complete unknown for this horse. However, his Sire and Dam went on it and connections are letting him take his chance. Whilst I would be more confident with better ground, 18/1 is too big of a price to let him go unbacked today. The unknown of the ground does temper my enthusiasm though, so I’m playing it steady with a 0.5pt Each Way bet.  

3:35 Goodwood 

Nashwa – 2pt Win – 11/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair & Others) 

My second and final selection today comes in the Nassau Stakes and against the tide of supporting coming in for Blue Rose Cen, I am siding withNashwa at 11/4.  

Blue Rose Cen looks the real deal on the evidence we have so far and I could be made to look silly taking her on. However, racing against fellow 3-year-olds and then racing against 4-year-olds is a completely different kettle of fish and she has to prove she is up to it. The second horse in the Prix De Diane has run twice since, getting stuffed on both occasions, including finishing last behind Nashwa last time out. Goodwood is also a notorious unique track that can be tricky to ride and again, horse and jockey have to prove they are up to the task.  

On the flipside, Nashwa is proven over track and trip having landed this race last year. She did plenty wrong that day, wanting to go a quicker pace than Hollie Doyle would allow and despite that, she still had enough in the tank to come from first to last in impressive fashion to win. People are knocking Nashwa about her first two runs this season but I think they were merely stepping stones and she would have been undercooked on those occasions with connections’ eyes firmly on the bigger targets. She delivered takingly last time and if progressing even further for that run and the step back up in trip, she could set a very high bar for Blue Rose Cen.  

In terms of how the race will play out, I think it would make sense for Blue Rose Cen to break quickly from Stall 1, secure the rail and attempt to make all. If doing so, she could set the race up for Nashwa who could then track her from Stall 4. If it does play out that way, then we have Blue Rose Cen setting a target and it’s up to Nashwa to step up to the plate and come past her. I think she can do that and shortly after 3:35, we will find out if she can. 

The one concern I do have is Nashwa’s recent tendency to not want to settle early on in her races. This could well be exacerbated by the fact they dropped her back in trip last time out and could be even more so if they do not go a strong pace today with the testing conditions in the jockey’s minds. However, Hollie knows this horse extremely well and if anybody can get her to settle and run her best race, then it is Hollie.