Today’s NBA Betting Splits and Picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday, January 22nd
Welcome to the DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits and Picks series! The goal of this daily article is to bypass the noise and bias of opinion-driven betting and instead focus on the cold hard data, thereby allowing bettors to make wagers based on their heads, not their hearts.
At VSiN, we post DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits on a daily basis. It is constantly being updated as more bets roll in and has quickly become one of our most popular and most bookmarked pages on the website. Next to each game, we provide the percentage of real bets and dollars each side is receiving. By monitoring and dissecting the data, bettors are able to identify the most popular public plays, the top contrarian opportunities, and most importantly, the teams and sides taking in the most respected money from professional bettors.
Keep in mind that the “bets” column shows the percentage of overall tickets a side is receiving. This lets us know where the public is. If a team is getting 75% or more of the bets, that’s a public play that contrarian bettors will look to fade. The “handle” column represents the percentage of money a side is receiving. If a team is receiving at least 10 percentage points more money than bets, that’s a good indication of sharp money in their favor.
Today’s NBA Betting Splits on DraftKings Sportsbook
Top Sharp Bets
Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons Over 247.5 (42% bets, 62% dollars)
This total opened at 247 and has risen to 247.5. While on the surface a half point rise isn’t terribly notable, it is when you compare the move to the betting splits. Currently, 58% of bets are taking the under as the public says this line is way too high and “has to go under.” However, despite a majority of bets going under, the total ticked up, which indicates a rare sharp contrarian over play. The over is only receiving 42% of bets but 62% of money, indicating a 20 percentage point smart money discrepancy. When the total is 240 or more, the over is 25-19 (57%) this season. Milwaukee and Detroit both rank in the top six in terms of pace. In addition, the Bucks rank 1st in offensive efficiency while the Pistons rank dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency. These teams played two nights ago in Detroit and the game flew over with the Bucks winning 141-135. These are also the top two “over” teams in the NBA, both with a 26-16 record to the over.
Toronto Raptors -7 vs. Memphis Grizzlies (53% bets, 75% dollars)
This line opened with the Raptors listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite the tickets being split, we’ve seen Toronto move from -6.5 to -7. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are split. So, we know sharps have sided with the Raptors based on the line moving in their favor. Toronto is only receiving 53% of bets but 75% of dollars, indicating a 22 percentage point smart money discrepancy. Favorites off a blowout loss of 20-points or more are 12-9 ATS (57%) this season and 109-81 ATS (57%) since 2018. This system matches on Toronto, who just lost 126-100 against the Knicks. Toronto ranks 15th in offensive efficiency while Memphis ranks 29th. The Grizzlies continue to be plagued by injuries and will be without Desmond Bane, Jake LaRavia, Marcus Smart, Derrick Rose, Brandon Clarke, Ja Morant and Steven Adams. Memphis is in the third road game of a four-game trip and has lost the first two games by double digits, losing to Minnesota 118-103 and Chicago 125-96.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
