Today’s NBA Betting Splits and Picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday, January 18th
Welcome to the DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits and Picks series! The goal of this daily article is to bypass the noise and bias of opinion-driven betting and instead focus on the cold hard data, thereby allowing bettors to make wagers based on their heads, not their hearts.
At VSiN, we post DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits on a daily basis. It is constantly being updated as more bets roll in and has quickly become one of our most popular and most bookmarked pages on the website. Next to each game, we provide the percentage of real bets and dollars each side is receiving. By monitoring and dissecting the data, bettors are able to identify the most popular public plays, the top contrarian opportunities, and most important of all, the teams and sides taking in the most respected money from professional bettors.
Keep in mind that the “bets” column shows the percentage of overall tickets a side is receiving. This lets us know where the public is. If a team is getting 75% or more of the bets, that’s a public play that contrarian bettors will look to fade. The “handle” column represents the percentage of money a side is receiving. If a team is receiving at least 10 percentage points more money than bets, that’s a good indication of sharp money in their favor.
Today’s NBA Betting Splits on DraftKings Sportsbook
Top Sharp Bets
Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves Under 217 to 214.5 (18% bets, 63% money)
This total opened at 217. Typically we see totals in the 230 or higher range. Because this total is so low, the public says “it has to go over.” However, despite 82% of bets taking the over, the total has fallen from 217 to 214.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the total to make it easier for the public to cash when they’re already sweating the over to begin with? Because respected pro money has hit the under, forcing the sportsbooks to adjust the total downward. The under is only receiving 18% of bets but 63% of money, indicating a 45 percentage point smart money discrepancy. The Grizzlies are 24-16 (60%) to the under, the best under team in the NBA. Memphis also has a long list of injured players who will not play tonight, including Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, Jake LaRavia, Derrick Rose and Brandon Clarke, in addition to Ja Morant being out for the season. Memphis ranks 29th in offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Minnesota ranks 1st in defensive efficiency. The Timberwolves are favored by 12.5 points, which sets up for a “big spread under” correlative betting spot. Oftentimes when a team is favored by double digits they tend to take their foot off the gas and coast toward a blowout, thereby decreasing the impetus to score late.
Indiana Pacers at Sacramento Kings Over 247.5 (47% bets, 59% money)
This total opened at 244. Because the total is so high, the public isn’t sure whether to go over or under. They know both teams can light up the scoreboard but are hesitant to go over due to the high number. However, despite the tickets being relatively split down the middle, we’ve seen the total rise from 244 to 247.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are split. However, not all tickets are created equally. Some are $5 Average Joe bets while others are $1000 bets (dime wagers) from respected pro bettors. Based on the line move, it appears as though the bigger sharper wagers are going over. The over is only receiving 47% of bets but 59% of money, indicating a 12 percentage point smart money discrepancy. When the total is 245 or more the over is 23-19 (55%) this season. Non-conference overs are 100-83 (55%) this season, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the offense. The Pacers rank 1st in pace of play, the fastest team in the NBA. Indiana also ranks 1st in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency. Indiana is 24-16 (60%) to the over, the fourth-best over team in the NBA.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
