Trail Blazers vs Spurs Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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26 January 2024

Trail Blazers vs Spurs Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Although Victor Wembayama has dominated against a multitude of teams this season, the rookie superstar could be in for an off night when he faces a lockdown defender in DeAndre Ayton. Read more in our Trail Blazers vs. Spurs betting picks.

The Portland Trail Blazers visit Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs in a matchup that screams... "thank god for sports betting".

The Trail Blazers and Spurs are the worst two teams in the Western Conference, but one of these two bottom-feeders is playing better than the other heading into tonight’s matchup, even if the NBA odds don’t agree.

Portland enters this game having won three of their last five games, and are 5-1 against the spread in their last six overall. Meanwhile, San Antonio has just eight wins for the season and has lost six of its last seven.

Is there value in the Blazers as road underdogs? I break down this Western Conference showdown and bring you the best bet, plus a same-game parlay in my NBA picks and predictions for Trail Blazers vs. Spurs.

Trail Blazers vs Spurs odds

Trail Blazers vs Spurs predictions

I think we can already tell that it looks like Victor Wembanyama is going to be a great basketball player in the NBA for a long time. That just might not equate to wins for the San Antonio Spurs this season.

Wembanyama is one of the most dynamic players the NBA has ever seen. The Spurs rookie is averaging 20.4 points with 10.1 rebounds while leading the NBA with 3.2 blocks per game. He’s also the favorite when it comes to Rookie of the Year odds.

That said, I think Wemby's point total prop of 24.5 is a little lofty for tonight’s matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers.

Make all the jokes you want about DeAndre Ayton thinking he’s a max player, but he’s a presence in the middle for Portland and it looks like he’s getting his feet underneath him after missing 12 games with a knee injury. Ayton is coming off a game in which he went for 18 points, 17 rebounds, and two blocks vs. Houston.

With Ayton back, the Blazers have been a not-as-terrible 20th in defensive rating. On top of that, while Wemby has been electric to watch this season, his shooting still has a way to go it seems. Inside eight feet, Wembanyama is hitting 66.9% of his field goal attempts, but from beyond that, his efficiency plummets to 30.1%. Ayton is the type of player who can clog up the paint and force Wembanyama to settle for jumpers.

To make matters worse, Wemby’s top playmaker Tre Jones, who missed the Spurs last game vs. Oklahoma City, is questionable for this game with an ankle injury.

At +105 odds, Under 24.5 points for Wembanyama offers great value tonight, and is a number he's gone Under in six of his last 10 games.

My best bet: Victor Wembanyama Under 24.5 points (+105 at bet365)

Trail Blazers vs Spurs same-game parlay

Victor Wembanyama Under 24.5 pointsTre Jones Under 6.5 assists

Trail Blazers moneyline

On top of having to deal with an ankle injury, Jones is averaging just 5.5 assists per game this season and has stayed below this number in 10 of his last 14 games. Simply put, if Wemby isn’t scoring as much, there will be fewer assists for Jones.

Let’s round this SGP out by taking the Trail Blazers on the moneyline. These two teams split back-to-back meetings in Portland at the end of December, but I believe the Blazers are playing better basketball right now and will pull out the win in San Antonio.

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Trail Blazers vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis

The Spurs opened this Western Conference matchup as 2.5-point favorites and have seen the early action, moving the line to 3.5 as of Friday afternoon. But let me tell you why I’m looking at the other side here.

The Trail Blazers offense has been a wasteland most of the season. Their young guns like Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson haven’t shot the ball well, and as a team, they rank next-to-last in the NBA when it comes to offensive rating.

The Blazers are also 3-2 straight up in their last five games overall and 5-1 against the spread over their last six. A big reason for that is that they’ve found a little groove with the basketball in their hands, ranking 16th in offensive rating and 20th in effective field goal percentage. While that may not be something to cheer about for most teams, trust me, that’s a huge improvement for the Blazers.

Meanwhile, the Spurs' defense has been pretty bad all season long. San Antonio ranks 25th in defensive rating and 27th in opponent-effective field goal percentage.

When it comes to the total, that hit the board at 232 and has been bet down to 232. That’s in line with the previous two meetings, where the total closed at 233 and 233.5, respectively. There is a high variance in outcomes in this matchup, so I’m staying away from the total here.