Victor Wembanyama NBA Rookie of the Year odds, best over/under prop bets 2023-24
Victor Wembanyama, the most highly anticipated NBA rookie since LeBron James, has generated a ton of buzz on and off the floor leading up to the Spurs' Oct. 25 season-opener against the Mavericks. Much of that buzz has been on the betting markets, including Rookie of the Year odds and the season-long player stat props that you can find on SuperDraft. Today, we will discuss whether he makes for a good ROY bet, choose our favorite Wemby over/under prop bets, and hopefully help you make some futures' dough in the process.
So, why all the hype behind the French phenom? He's 7-4, 210 pounds, he has a sick handle and a smooth stroke, and he can basically do everything you need him to do on the floor. We recently witnessed him utilize his nearly eight-foot wingspan to initiate a steal and start gunning down the floor on a fast-break, which he finished with a throw-down dunk after his teammate dished downcourt to him in a preseason game. He's a highlight-reel waiting to happen, and he's only 19.
In many ways, we worry about Gregg Popovich's tendency to rest star players during the season, especially in years when San Antonio isn't expected to contend for the playoffs. Fortunately, Rookie of the Year is the one award excused from the 65-game minimum, so Wemby will be eligible regardless of how much Pop rests him. Still, individual stat average over/under props seem like a much better avenue for betting players like Wemby. That way, you're betting on his per-game impact, not his full-season impact.
Let's get into Victor Wembanyama's Rookie of the Year odds, as well as the two best Wemby bets on SuperDraft's season-long prop market, and explain how we're leaning on each one.
Victor Wembanyama NBA Rookie of the Year odds 2023-24
Odds from BetMGM
Not surprisingly, Wemby sits atop the Rookie of the Year boards on most sportsbooks, right around +120 to +130 as the odds-on favorite. We're staying away from the hype on this one, just like we stayed away from Zion Williamson's ROY odds in his debut year. Wembanyama has never played in a season as long or physically demanding as the NBA's. He's coming off a 33-game season in France, and his 7-4, 210-pound frame might take a beating near the hoop.
Beyond that, he has some stiff competition for the award. Scoot Henderson, a G-League standout last season, will be taking on a ton of usage in Portland now that Damian Lillard has been traded to the Bucks. Second-year pro Chet Holmgren — who sat out his entire rookie year and thus is eligible for ROY — is older, more experienced, and playing on a better team. Amen Thompson is a head turner, while twin brother Ausar Thompson might be the best defender in the 2023 rookie class.
Gregg Popovich is thinking big picture with his squad. It's one of the youngest teams in the NBA. He's not going to risk the health of a foreign asset who's estimated to have increased the Spurs' organizational value by half a billion dollars. He might very well be the most uniquely built and insanely talented player in this class, but he won't end the season as the most decorated. Our money's headed in the direction of Scoot or Chet given the lack of value on Wemby +125.
Best Victor Wembanyama prop bets 2023-24
Props available on SuperDraft
UNDER 18.5 average points per game
This is not me hating or fading the noise — this is just a betting analyst being realistic about what we should expect from this tantalizing NBA star in the making. Popovich has always managed his young prospect's minutes conservatively in bridge years, and this year is absolutely a bridge year in San Antonio. The Spurs' over/under regular season win total has been hovering around 30.5. For context, no team sniffed last season's NBA Play-In Tournament without at least 40 victories.
Why push a 7-4, 210-pound 19-year-old more than 30-32 minutes per game if your team won't be competing for a playoff spot? Star rookies rarely turn a team from a cellar dweller in the standings to a contender, and with continued parity in the Western Conference, this year should be no different. Pop won't risk the long-term health of his highly coveted rookie in order to maintain strong ratings or keep the buzz going all 82 games — it's just not how he operates.
We project Wemby to take about 12-15 shots per game, around four free throws per game, and play about 28-30 minutes. His field-goal percentage should see peaks and valleys throughout the season, but we have him projected at closer to 45 percent from the floor than 50 percent. Remember, he's facing bigger, stronger NBA defenders now, not the occasional former NBA big in Europe. The proverbial 'X' on his back is now bigger than ever.
Even the high end of our projections have him finishing well below 18 points per game. He probably won't need to score much more than that to lock himself in as frontrunner for Rookie of the Year, especially considering he also has such a massive presence as a passer and defender. (Side note: if we find any blocks props, we might be inclined to smash the OVER). We don't see Wemby averaging at least 20 ppg like Luka Doncic and Paolo Banchero did, and every other of the past 10 ROY winners averaged fewer than 18.5 ppg. Bet the UNDER here with confidence.
OVER 8.8 average rebounds per game
Here's your opportunity to play a Wemby OVER. With Wemby's size, athleticism, and massive wingspan, we have him easily surpassing 10 rebounds per game this season. He's most likely to spend the majority of his minutes as San Antonio's stretch-four with the center spot occupied by Zach Collins, who has never averaged more than 6.4 rebounds per game. Collins' rebounding rate last season was 15.2 percent, a number we're sure Wemby will blow out of the water.
In 33 games with the Boulogne-Levallois Metropolitans 92 last year, the French phenom averaged 10.4 rebounds per game. Across France's three World Cup qualifying games in 2022-23, he averaged 10 boards per game. Even on poor shooting nights, Wemby still brought in game in and game out on the glass. That's important for us to consider because rookies often have games in which they can't buy a bucket. Hell, we saw it with Wemby's first Summer League game when he went 2-for-13 from the floor.
Wemby's average after his two Summer League games was 10.0 rebounds. Are you sensing a trend yet? His 21 points per game probably won't translate to 20-plus per contest in the NBA, but his 10-plus rebounds per game absolutely will. You can teach and mold shooting and shot selection, but you can't really teach size, wingspan, athletic ability, or even a nose for the basketball. Wemby has all those skills deeply ingrained in him, so we have him easily surpassing 8.8 rebounds per game in his rookie season.
