Two tips for Doncaster tomorrow

The Saturday of Doncaster’s St Leger meeting offers something for everyone: the fifth and final ‘classic’ of the season and a ridiculously competitive sprint handicap for starters, with much more besides.

I will start by looking at the Group 1 Betfred St Leger (tomorrow 3.35 p.m.), which is the longest flat racing classic over a distance of more than one mile six furlongs. Given that most racehorses are bred for speed these days, this means that, at only three years old, many talented thoroughbreds do not have the stamina to last the trip.

With the ground likely to be on the soft side of good tomorrow, backing a strong stayer is a must in this race, which has a first prize of more than £420,000. The likely favourite, Arrest, ticks plenty of the right boxes and would be a popular winner, given he will be Frankie Dettori’s final mount in an English classic (unless the rider does a U-turn on his decision to retire, that is).

Two stables – those of Aidan O’Brien and John/Thady Gosden – field a remarkable seven of the nine runners between them. The Ballydoyle maestro has four runners of which Ryan Moore’s mount Continuous is likely to have the best chance, judged on his last run when landing the Group 2 Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. He was a comfortable winner that day in a race that is often a good prep for the St Leger.

The trouble with both Arrest and Continuous is that they have now both been ‘found’ in the betting market and, with the two best-known jockeys on the planet in the respective saddles, they are certain to attract plenty more support. Of the two, I would prefer the Irish horse which is a tempting each way at 4-1. The horse has a strong chance of winning and is unlikely to be out of the first three but I will pass on him as a bet nonetheless.

The King and Queen’s horse Desert Hero, trained by William Haggas, and the Simon and Ed Crisford-trained runner, Chesspiece, make up the field and both have a shout. Chesspiece, in particular, should relish trying this longer trip on rain-softened ground.

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At the prices, however, I want to back a horse that is improving at a rapid rate of knots and that is guaranteed to get the trip. My only reservation is he might lack the necessary class for the race but step forward the outsider of the Gosdens’ three runners, MIDDLE EARTH.

After a couple of fair second places, the beautifully bred Middle Earth stepped up his game when beating the odds-on shot, Naqeeb, at Newmarket in late July. William Haggas’s colt has franked the form by winning twice since, while Middle Earth has gone on to land the competitive Sky Bet Melrose Handicap at York over one mile six furlongs.

The Qatar Racing-owned colt stayed on strongly to the line and he will not fail tomorrow for a lack of stamina. Dettori would not have had the chance to ride this horse for the Gosdens as Oisin Murphy is the retained jockey for Qatar Racing.

I doubt that Middle Earth would want the ground very soft or heavy but drying ground, likely to be on the soft side of good, should be fine. Back him each way at 7-1 with Sky Bet, paying four places, rather than at a point more with other bookmakers paying a place less.

The Betfred Portland handicap (tomorrow 2.25 p.m.) is run over an unusual sprint distance of five and a half furlongs. With a first prize of more than £50,000, it has attracted a maximum field of 22 runners and they will be spread wide across the course in running.

I really fancy the likely favourite CALL ME GINGER, who won this race last year in the stewards’ room despite missing the break. He can complete a hat-trick of consecutive wins tomorrow, hopefully without help from the officials this time. His last two wins, both earlier this month, came at Chester and Ascot and, even at the age of seven, this gelding is clearly in the form of his life.

Call Me Ginger proved that he loves this quirky sprint trip a year ago and, of course, he goes well at the course too, and for his apprentice jockey, Amie Waugh, who is well worth her 5lbs claim. Once again, back him each way at 7-1 with Sky Bet, this time paying seven places, rather than going for a point more with other bookies paying less places.

The list of dangers in this race is nearly endless and includes the Julie Camacho trio of Makanah, Badri and Significantly. Makanah is a loyal and consistent servant to the yard and will appreciate the cut in the ground, while Badri has had a successful season for the Ruth Carr stable and is now having only his second run for Camacho’s growing North Yorkshire operation. Camacho has a third runner in Significantly, who has been consistent for his yard this season and is definitely not out of it.

Apologies for last week when a glitch meant the column was posted late – several readers asked about this. As Boris Becker calmly told excited journalists in 1987 after losing his first-ever singles match at Wimbledon, having won the tournament for two years as a teenager, ‘No one died out there’. Similarly, there were no fatalities last week and I am glad to say that normal service has been restored today.

2023 flat season running total: – 21.82 points.

2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.

Pending:

1 point each way Call Me Ginger at 7-1 in the Betfred Portland handicap, paying seven places.

 1 point each way Middle Earth at 7-1 in the Betfred St Leger, paying four places.

2 points win Juan Les Pins at 20-1 for the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup.

2 points win Aleezdancer at 16-1 for the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup.

2 points win Oviedo at 16-1 for the bet365 Cambridgeshire.

There were no settled bets from last week to record. I am no longer listing all the settled bets from the season as the list is now very long. However, all the bets are there online in my past columns if people want to see them.

My gambling record for the seven and a half years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 15 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 523 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).