Two ante-post tips for the Ayr Gold Cup

The last of this season’s big six-furlong sprint handicaps takes place in Scotland three weeks tomorrow. The Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup is always a competitive affair with up to 25 runners spread across the course, often splitting into two distinct groups on the near side and the far side of the stands.

Last year, the race was won by the hugely-admirable Summerghand at the age of eight. This wonderful old warrior has been at the peak of his powers again this season winning his most recent race at York and being runner-up before that in the William Hill Great St Wilfred Handicap at Ripon. He will surely return to Ayr on 23 September to try to defend his crown and he could well do it off a lofty rating of 107, including a penalty for his York win.

As always, the ground conditions will have a huge effect on the outcome of this race and it is slightly annoying that I like two horses that are ground-dependent. However, both geldings are at such attractive prices that I am going to suggest backing them now even though no one knows what the ground conditions will be towards the end of September.

The first horse is Mick Appleby’s JUAN LES PINS who ran a massive race behind Lezoo six days ago in a listed race at Newmarket. The handicapper raised him 8 lbs for that run but Juan Les Pins will be able to race off his old mark at Ayr, meaning that he is a huge 8 lbs ‘well in’.

Juan Les Pins, who prefers a sound surface, had no chance in his penultimate run when he got bogged down in a quagmire at Glorious Goodwood, finishing 10th of the 27 runners behind Aberama Gold in the Coral Stewards’ Cup.

However, before that, he ran another big race at Royal Ascot on good to firm ground when he was third in the Wokingham Stakes behind Saint Lawrence. If the ground is truly soft, or even heavy, at Ayr, he is highly unlikely to win but I think he will be fine on anything from ‘good to firm’ to ‘good to soft’, with a definite preference for the former.

I watched society collapse at Stansted Airport

I am going to be bold and suggest 2 points win, rather than each way, at 20-1 on the basis that if he gets his ground conditions, he will have an excellent chance of winning and, if he does not get them, he could well be down the field. Those odds are available with most bookmakers, including bet365, Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair, Bet Victor, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes.

Juan Les Pins was third in the Ayr Gold Cuyp last year when the race was run on good ground. If, as expected, he runs in the race again and gets his preferred ground again, I can see him going off at a single-figure price on the day.

The other horse I fancy would be best suited by a monsoon in the run-up to the Ayr Gold Cup, as he likes the ground very soft. ALEEZDANCER enjoyed his favoured conditions at Goodwood in the Stewards’ Cup and ‘won’ his race on the far side. However, he was drawn on the ‘wrong’ side that day and was beaten by four horses running in the centre and on the near side.

Aleezdancer is only four years old and has plenty of scope for improvement when he gets his favoured ground conditions. Trainer Kevin Ryan has had the Ayr Gold Cup on the radar for this horse all season and his mark of 95 is very fair, 1 lb lower than last time out. Back him with one of the bookies (i.e. most of them, including bet365) that will return stakes on ante post bets if the horse is declared at the 48-hour stage but does not make the ‘cut’ for the race.

Once again, I am going to be bold and suggest 2 points win, rather than each way, at 16-1. These odds are currently on offer with bet365, Sky Bet, Bet Victor and Unibet.

I can’t get excited about this weekend’s fare. I was tempted to put up Gaassee in the Sandown 3 p.m. race tomorrow because I think he will be suited by dropping down in trip but it’s a competitive race and, at the current odds (no bigger than 7-1) and with the ground faster than he ideally likes, I will give this and other races tomorrow a miss, betting wise.

2023 flat season running total: – 21.82 points.

2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.

Pending:

2 points to win Juan Les Pins at 20-1 in the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup

2 points to win Aleezdancer at 16-1 in the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup

Settled bets from last week only:

1 point each way Jumby at 20-1 in the City of York Stakes, 1/5 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Scampi at 10-1 in the Ebor, paying 1/5 odds, eight places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Oviedo at 9-1 in the Sky Bet Final, 1/5 odds, six places. 2 with a Rule 4 deduction of 30p in the £. + 0.56 points.

1 point each way Gaassee at 10-1 in the Sky Bet Final, 1/5 odds, five places. Non runner but stake returned.

I will not keep listing all the settled bets from the season as the list is now very long. However, all the bets are there online in my past columns if people want to see them.

My gambling record for the seven and a half years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 15 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 523 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).