Virginia vs. Louisville Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 11

sportsbookreview.com

07 November 2023

The Louisville Cardinals host the Virginia Cavaliers on Thursday in the only non-Saturday game featuring a ranked team, and we offer our best Virginia vs. Louisville prediction based on the best college football odds.

Virginia, with a 2-7 record and a 1-4 mark in the ACC, is riding a two-game losing streak and is one of four ACC teams that has won just one or zero games in league play this season. Despite their challenges, the Cavaliers seek a second victory over a ranked opponent, as they pulled off a surprising upset of No. 10 North Carolina as 21.5-point underdogs in Week 8.

Louisville, boasting an impressive 8-1 record and a 5-1 ACC mark, has clinched back-to-back wins and controls its destiny for a potential inaugural appearance in the ACC Championship Game. The Cardinals have displayed dominance at home, securing victory in 10 consecutive games, all by double-digit margins.

As part of our Week 11 college football predictions, here is our best Virginia vs. Louisville prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Virginia vs. Louisville prediction: Week 11

Under 51.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Louisville has been dominant at home this season, winning its five games at Cardinal Stadium by a combined 151 points. The Cardinals did not let a shocking 38-21 road loss at Pittsburgh in Week 7 derail what is shaping up to be a special season, as it rebounded with two victories over Duke (23-0) and Virginia Tech (34-3). The Virginia Tech victory came over a team starting to play better football with three wins in four games entering last week. The Cardinals have now prevented five consecutive opponents from rushing for 100 yards or accumulating 300-plus yards of total offense, and we expect another dominant defensive performance — along with some injury concerns — to lead to another low-scoring game.

Louisville was without leading receiver Jamari Thrash, who still ranks second in the conference with 712 receiving yards despite the missed game, and running back Jahwhar Jordan was given just 14 carries last week after 21 carries in each of the previous two full games he played, as a means to keep him fresh down the stretch. We would not be surprised to see Louisville take another cautious approach to this game on a short week, with a much tougher road trip at Miami looming next week, especially since the Cardinals ran for 231 yards and 6.1 yards per carry even without giving Jordan a full workload.

Louisville has a top-14 scoring defense and ranks in the top 12 in the country in Rush Success, Line Yards, and Quality Drives Allowed. It should not need to do anything spectacular offensively to beat a Virginia team that ranks 105th in Offensive Explosiveness and ninth in the ACC in Success Rate.

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Virginia vs. Louisville best odds

FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, bet365 (-110)

As Under backers, DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting apps not offering a total of 51.5 points, and with the rest of the competition offering the same -110 juice on either side of the higher total, we have our choice of preferred sportsbook. We would play this number down to 51 but will take advantage of the 51.5s while they are available.

Virginia vs. Louisville odds

DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting sites where the total has lowered so far, dipping a half-point from an opening number of 51.5. Conversely, the biggest line movement has happened at FanDuel, whose total has risen considerably from 46.5 on early Sunday afternoon to 51.5. Virginia has been a profitable Over team, cashing six times in its eight games, while Louisville has an O/U record of 3-5.

There is quite a bit of variability among our best sportsbooks concerning the point spread. BetRivers is the lowest at Louisville at -19.5, while bet365 and Caesars are slightly higher at -20. FanDuel, BetMGM, and DraftKings all are the highest at -20.5. No sportsbook has yet to touch -21. However, the line may be headed in that direction, as FanDuel’s line is up from an opening of -17.5 as recently as Sunday afternoon. There is likely sharp action driving that movement, as there has been decent two-way point-spread action thus far (53/47 in favor of Louisville).