25/3/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets

justhorseracing.com.au

01 January 0001

The Parks track at Morphettville is where SA metro racing heads to this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres from the 1000m-Winning Post; Out six metres for the remainder.

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Race 1. (12:37) Skycity Hcp 1000m

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2 Jewel Bay (Bet Now:$3.00) to make it 2/2 to start his career. Phillip Stokes trained juvenile that debuted over this track/distance two weeks ago where he was kept quite safe in betting but he was an impressive winner, letting down with real purpose from off the speed and produced good late splits in winning. Can only see upside/improvement and overall, this race isn’t much stronger from the debut.

Danger

1 Celui (Bet Now:$3.70) will make sure this is a proper 1000m contest given he is a jump/run type. He has been freshened up since a down the track effort in the Inglis Millennium when leading and folding late to finish near last behind Learning To Fly. Like him back to 1000m and with the lead there for him to get control, he’ll take running down despite potentially being suspect late.

Long Shot

6 Nasho (Bet Now:$27.00) has talent for Team Oxlade. Total forgive on debut here behind Accapella Moon when four wide the trip. He then went to the Jewel Bay race from a fortnight back and tried his guts out but couldn’t quite get there behind Jewel Bay. I will say he should have finished closer given he copped a check halfway down the straight. He’ll land on speed and give a sight.

Race 2. (13:12) The Mrs Marcia Meyer Hcp (C1) 1400m

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3 Stadium Of Light (Bet Now:$4.00) is a son of Sacred Falls for Michael Hickmott that resumes. This guy hasn’t raced since October 28 at The Valley on a bottomless deck and battled on really well in defeat in trying conditions when second to King Couver. He is better suited over a bit further but first up at 1400m I do like and he has had the grounding with solid trial work under the belt.

Danger

8 Tapinforpar (Bet Now:$7.00) should prove hard to beat here for the Richards/Moyle camp. He resumed on the course proper here on Adelaide Cup Day where he attempted to lead throughout and he gave a strong kick but couldn’t quite finish it off, nabbed late by Validated but was close up in fourth. Has that run under the belt and back to a moderate level here, cheap lead, he’ll take running down.

Long Shot

9 Lady De Lune (Bet Now:$11.00) has been somewhat of an enigma throughout her career but in recent times, she has been putting it together. Strong maiden winner two back at Balaklava in what has turned out to be a good form race with a couple of winners coming from it. She then went here two weeks back and was good from near last behind Exalted Dame. Won’t be as far back this time around and should be strong late.

Race 3. (13:52) The Fotobase Group (Bm86) 1400m

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2 My Khalifa (Bet Now:$6.00) has a fab track/distance record and he is the safe bet. I thought he did more than enough here two weeks ago behind Bellinger given he was back near last in essentially was a barrier trial given the race shape so I actually thought he did a solid enough job in defeat behind the Team Hayes gelding. He is fourth up from a break so he should just about be at peak fitness and with his record at the track/distance, he’ll take beating.

Danger

1 Struck By (Bet Now:$2.80) has a great record at the track and with his racing style, he’ll take beating. Three weeks between runs since an all the way win over 1400m at Murray Bridge where he led throughout and was there to be beaten but found plenty under pressure to fend them off and win. He was only second up there, so he’s got room for improvement, he’ll jump on the bunny and take beating.

Long Shot

4 Yuri Royale (Bet Now:$7.50) looks to be in for a really good prep for Team Jolly. He was a big drifter in betting when resuming over 1300m here a fortnight back and I thought he did a really good job given he was back near last in the run and with the dash home, he wasn’t entitled to finish as close as he did I thought when third to Bellinger. Might want one more run, but that return was too good to ignore.

Race 4. (14:32) Roger Lang's Birthday (Bm70) 1250m

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3 Palaggio (Bet Now:$9.00) is a slight query at 1250m but if he gets a soft lead, he’ll take running down. Last start saw him take on the older horses over 1100m at Kyneton and I thought the win had good merit to it because he was there to be beaten but found plenty under pressure to win. Gets in really well after the 3kg claim, should hold up from gate and run a bold race.

Danger

4 Validated (Bet Now:$5.00) looks to be in for a super prep. Team Blanch trained three year old that resumed on Adelaide Cup Day over 1200m and he was an impressive winner, settling off the speed before coming with a well timed run and launching late to overhaul Hope At Hand and win well. Fitter, has the class/quality and with good upside, he’s clearly hard to beat.

Long Shot

9 Merchant Boss (Bet Now:$18.00) has been solid in two runs back from a spell and third up, he should just about be at peak fitness. He ran over this trip at Murray Bridge a few weeks ago where he was just off the speed throughout and tried his guts out but I think his condition just gave way late behind Thirsty Guest. He should be hard fit now and with a good run on speed likely, he appeals.

Race 5. (15:12) Furphy (Bm82) 1950m

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4 Disagreeable Miss (Bet Now:$4.00) should prove hard to beat against these. Last couple of runs have come over the mile on the course proper here, winning two back before going to the CS Hayes Memorial Cup and she ran an absolute beauty in defeat when fourth to Beltoro. Getting a rise to 1950m is ideal and back to benchmark grade, she clearly rates highly.

Danger

3 Thrill Kill (Bet Now:$4.80) is knocking on the door to win. Game fourth two back over the mile on the course proper here behind Disagreeable Miss before going to the Edenhope Cup where he tried his guts out but was no match late for the in form Catskill Mountain. Little while between runs but I do think he is knocking on the door and strikes a winnable race for mine.

Long Shot

9 Ichibansan (Bet Now:$5.50) should appreciate a rise in trip for the Macdonald/Gluyas camp. He ran over the mile on the course proper here on Adelaide Cup Day where he attempted to lead throughout and just went too slow in front, leaving himself exposed for the backmarkers with change up speed to overhaul him. Good record at the track/distance and hard fit now, he strikes a winnable race.

Race 6. (15:52) Grand Syndicates (Bm68) 1550m

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4 Rialtor (Bet Now:$2.80) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to run down. Tomlinson took a little while to find his feet in SA but in recent weeks, he is fast becoming one of the better apprentice hoops in the SA riding ranks and case in point was the front running ride aboard this guy last time. He got control early and instead of waiting, he let the horse stride 600m out and he gave the backmarkers zero chance of getting involved. If he gets a similar ride again, he’ll take running down.

Danger

6 Kaliuwaa Falls (Bet Now:$6.50) commands respect for Mitch Freedman. He ran over 1500m at Sandown at the midweeks last time out and I thought did a very good job against the pattern, working home with purpose when fourth to Takara, beaten just under a length. The track pattern here can be similar to Sandown, so potentially needs luck, but he has good Victorian form.

Long Shot

10 Turfitt (Bet Now:$11.00) doesn’t have the best of racing patterns but she will be strong late if the inside gate can be used to advantage. Didn’t use the inside gate two weeks back here but loved the way she found the line late in the piece behind Exalted Dame. Not the best of winning strike rates, but right down in the weights, gets a rise in trip, she’s a knockout hope.

Race 7. (16:32) Charlie Hoile (Bm68) 1250m

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7 Pontedera (Bet Now:$4.00) can resume a winner for Michael Hickmott. He really came of age when last in work, winning a couple of races and establishing himself as a Saturday class horse, ending the prep with a dominant win at Murray Bridge. Two solid trials under the belt to get ready for the return and this stable are starting to find form. Hopefully the market gravitates towards him.

Danger

5 Apache Star (Bet Now:$7.00) looks to be in for a good prep for Phillip Stokes. Market said he was ready to go when resuming over 1300m here two weeks ago and despite doing a bit of work to land on speed, class came to the fore and he kicked on powerfully to win and win well. Back to 1250m is interesting but he has a bit of class/quality on his side and with upside, is hard to beat.

Long Shot

8 Prince Jofra (Bet Now:$35.00) is a son of Barbados for Garret Lynch that resumes. This guy hasn’t raced since October 1 when a game second in the Jamestown Cup. Can’t find a recent jumpout for him but he can sprint well fresh and while 1250m is short of his best, I think he will be one of the strongest at the end. Knockout hope.

Race 8. (17:12) Peter Elberg Funerals (Bm68) 1300m

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1 Bubble Over (Bet Now:$5.50) is such a genuine mare for John Macmillan that rates highly against these. Took on the boys on Adelaide Cup Day and tried her guts out, but just couldn’t quite finish it off when a narrow second to a handy horse in Extra Mile. She was 1000m to 1200m there so getting that run under the belt, she appeals big time back to Mares grade.

Danger

2 Kenyan Wonder (Bet Now:$16.00) can be a hit and miss mare but she has the engine under the hood to beat these. Lovely ride from Rawiller saw her win two back before going to Adelaide Cup where she was nearer the inside and I think that wasn’t the spot to be for the most part for the meeting behind Extra Mile. If she gets the right run in transit, she’ll take beating.

Long Shot

10 Exalted Dame (Bet Now:$8.00) took a little while to break the maiden tag but is now looking to make it three wins on the bounce. Dominant maiden win two back at Balaklava before a strong win over this track/distance two weeks back when wide throughout but showed good ticker to win. Not sure what upside there is but if she holds her form, she should be around the mark.

Race 9. (17:50) Happy B'day Annie Romano-Bm62 1000m

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I think nobody would begrudge a city win for Team Yargi with what happened last Saturday and I think they have a moral here in 11 Fun With Flags (Bet Now:$2.50). Lot to like about the debut win at Pakenham, and yes, it was a 1000m chute race, but she produced sustained speed from the front and gave them an absolute spanking. Bled from one nostril so she busted a gut winning, and that is a great trait for a horse on debut. She’s genuine, early speed, lands near the front and for mine is just better than these.

Danger

2 Shirshov (Bet Now:$4.00), given the ownership group, I would assume has eyes on Darwin later in the year. He was kept safe in betting when resuming at Morphettville four weeks ago and launched late to finish over the top for a big win. His historic form suggests he tends to race best with fresh legs so the break between runs is fine and he finds another winnable race.

Long Shot

12 My Ruby (Bet Now:$13.00) is best ridden with a sit so if that can eventuate here, she appeals. Late market push against her was spot on a few weeks back behind Mr Have A Chat. She got off the speed and seemingly had every chance but couldn’t quite get there when third to the Jolly sprinter. Previous winner at the track, patient steer, she is one of the hardest to beat.