2023 British Open picks, odds: Expert predictions, favorites to win from betting field at Royal Liverpool
A sterling season of professional golf reaches its conclusion -- at least as the four majors are concerned -- this weekend at the 151st Open Championship. With Royal Liverpool hosting for the first time in nine years, the 156-man field will all be looking to add their names to a list of Champion Golfers of the Year that has been especially impressive when crowned in Hoylake, England.
Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods are the last two Claret Jug hoisters at Hoylake, and coming off a Scottish Open victory last weekend, McIlroy enters this week as a significant favorite to repeat his 2014 Open victory at this venue. Rory is famously winless at majors over the last nine years, and that Open was his penultimate such victory as he doubled up with a PGA Championship the next month.
In the years that followed the 2015 Open, which he missed due to injury, McIlroy finished in ties for fifth, fourth and second. However, prior to his excruciating third-place finish at St. Andrews last year, he had missed the cut in 2019 before concluding his tournament T46 in 2021.
Past the McIlroy story is a three-headed monster of Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka that commands attention. That trio had dominated the sport up until last month's U.S. Open. Scheffler and Rahm are each seeking their second career majors, while Koepka is attempting to enter rarified air with his six while notching the third leg of the grand slam. Scheffler is also seeking his first major of the season despite him putting forth an incredible statistical campaign.
Add it all up, and it would appear that we're in for a tremendous week at Royal Liverpool week full of unexpected twists and turns but also a lot of familiar names atop the famed navy and marigold leaderboard.
So what is going to happen in Hoylake? Let's take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts as we attempt to project who will win -- and what will happen -- at one of the most prestigious golf tournaments in the world. Don't miss our full slate of 2023 Open odds
2023 Open expert picks, predictions
Kyle Porter, senior golf writer
Winner -- Rory McIlroy (21/4): I am (perhaps foolishly) pushing all of my chips to the middle of the table. There are a number of factors you could point to if you wanted to reason why McIlroy will get his fifth major this week, but I keep coming back to this one: At Los Angeles Country Club, he spoke confidently and almost defiantly about winning a major in the future. It's not an air or attitude I'd seen him display over the last several years, and it's clearly one that is serving him well as he's coming into this week as the Scottish Open champion. Finally, after nine long, tiring years, the drought will end with Rory once again drinking from the Claret Jug to end a crazy golf summer.
Sleeper -- Min Woo Lee (55-1): Colleague Rick Gehman believes an elite driver will win this week, and Lee certainly qualifies as that. He's quietly been very good of late (T9 at Travelers, T5 at U.S. Open), and if this turns into a stinger-fest like it did in 2006 when Tiger Woods won, you can cancel Christmas, baby, because he might win the whole thing.
Top 10 lock -- Scottie Scheffler (-140): Who else? Scheffler has finished in the top 12 in each of his last 19 events and is lapping the rest of the world when it comes to strokes gained from tee to green. He is literally playing at a Tiger-like level even if he's not receiving the same coverage for it. Why? Well, he's not Tiger Woods, and he has not won as much as his numbers have indicated he should be winning. All of that might change this week though.
Star who definitely won't win -- Jon Rahm: It would be awesome if he did win because the list of Masters and Open winners in the same year is so short. But I'm just not seeing it this week. He's been good but not great since his Masters victory, and while his Open record is fine, he has just one top 10 in his last four starts overall. There's no momentum with Rahm, which doesn't mean he can't win, only that he probably will not.
Rory McIlroy vs. Scottie Scheffler vs. Jon Rahm vs. Brooks Koepka: Well, since Rory is my pick to win, I guess I have to go with him on top with Scottie next and Koepka over Rahm to round out the foursome that has largely dominated golf this season.
Surprise prediction -- A golfer in their 40s or 50s will get into the mix: It could be Padraig Harrington or Phil Mickelson. It could be Justin Rose or Henrik Stenson. Somebody who is older and nobody really puts in the same category as that quartet above is going to be in it on Friday night or Saturday night, and the idea of one of them winning (even though one of them will not win) is going to be great fun.
Lowest round: 64 (-7)
Winning score: 272 (-12)
Winner's Sunday score: 70 (-1)
Patrick McDonald, golf writer
Winner -- Dustin Johnson (30-1): The two-time major champion has quietly registered three straight top-10 finishes including one at the U.S. Open. If not for the second hole at LACC, Johnson would have been right up there with Wyndham Clark down the stretch. He arrives with consecutive top-10 finishes at The Open, and he placed T12 the last time the Claret Jug travelled to Royal Liverpool.
Sleeper -- Bryson DeChambeau (50-1): McIlroy rolled into the 2014 Open as the clear-cut best driver of the golf ball and imposed his will around Hoylake. This is a blueprint DeChambeau could mirror as he arrives off a top-five finish at the PGA Championship and top-20 finish at the U.S. Open. Despite his stellar play at the last two major championships, it is DeChambeau's runner-up finish at Valderrama that provides confidence. Before he was "The Big One," he was "The Mad Scientist," and he will be able to think his way around this course.
Top 10 lock -- Scottie Scheffler (-140): Next question. He is the only player to finish inside the top 10 in each of the first three major championships and has done so in nine of his last 13 majors. Since 2020, he is 62 under par in majors and 27 strokes clear of his nearest counterpart. If Scheffler makes putts on a consistent basis, he will be your Champion Golfer of the Year. If he does not, the world No. 1 will still finish inside the top 10.
Star who definitely won't win -- Tommy Fleetwood: The local lad has been playing some brilliant golf, but Fleetwood's mettle in big moments leaves plenty to be desired. When trying to identify a major championship, a simple question of being able to make an 8-foot par putt on the back nine Sunday creeps into my mind. The Englishman has shown -- despite being the fifth betting favorite -- he's "not that guy." I will happily be proven wrong if he wins.
Rory McIlroy vs. Scottie Scheffler vs. Jon Rahm vs. Brooks Koepka: Although I picked D.J. to win, I ultimately think McIlroy knocks the door down this week. At 5-1, I am not too keen on the price, but he will be your Champion Golfer of the Year, and Scheffler will contend. That leaves us with the Masters champion and the PGA champion. Koepka's floor is so high that any finish inside the top 30 feels like a sure thing. Meanwhile, Rahm's driver has not been up to his standards since April, and links golf may test his patience. A second consecutive early exit is unlikely, but I have him fourth among this group.
Surprise prediction -- A member of LIV Golf wins: Smith, Koepka, Johnson, DeChambeau and Patrick Reed are all playing great golf at the moment and have contended in recent major championships. Then you throw in wildcards like Talor Gooch, Joaquin Niemann, Thomas Pieters, Branden Grace, Louis Oosthuizen and Henrik Stenson, and suddenly, the path to the winner's circle becomes apparent.
Lowest round: 64 (-7)
Winning score: 266 (-18)
Winner's Sunday score: 67 (-4)
Dean Straka, golf writer
Winner -- Rory McIlroy (21/4): Is there a better time than now for McIlroy to snap his nine-year major championship drought? He heads to Royal Liverpool -- the site of his most recent major victory in 2014 -- riding a streak of six consecutive starts with a top-10 finish, including last Sunday's win at the Scottish Open. McIlroy has flirted with a major title more than once in the past 12 months, finishing third in the 150th Open at St. Andrews and as the runner-up in last month's U.S. Open at LACC. All said, he's the betting favorite for a reason, and a special week could be on deck as McIlroy pursues major victory No. 5.
Sleeper -- Bryson DeChambeau (50-1): Approaching three years since winning the 2020 U.S. Open, DeChambeau is worth keeping an eye on this week with his recent play on some of golf's top stages. He's finished in the the top 20 in three of the last four majors held, the exception being a missed cut at the 2023 Masters. DeChambeau finished T8 last July at St. Andrews. More recently, he came in T4 at the 2023 PGA Championship and T20 a month later at the U.S. Open. If the driver is working for one of golf's biggest hitters, DeChambeau could find himself eyeing a second major title.
Top 10 lock -- Scottie Scheffler (-140): Scheffler is still seeking his second major title since prevailing at the 2022 Masters, but it's an upset these days when he doesn't finish in the top 10 at an event. Scheffler has posted a top-10 finish in each of his past seven starts and in 11 of his past 12, the exception being when he finished T11 at the RBC Heritage. After finishing T21 at the 2022 Open Championship, expect a much stronger showing this time around.
Star who definitely won't win -- Justin Thomas: Thomas' history at this event does not bode well for a two-time major champion who has struggled to find his game in 2023. Outside of finishing T11 at the 2019 event, Thomas has not finished better than T40 at an Open. He missed the cut in back-to-back years from 2017-18 and finished T53 last July. His past five events do include a top-10 finish at the Travelers Championship in June, but he also missed three cuts in that same stretch. Last week's tune-up at the Scottish Open didn't quite go according to plan, either, as Thomas finished T60.
Rory McIlroy vs. Scottie Scheffler vs. Jon Rahm vs. Brooks Koepka: My winner pick already answers where McIlroy finishes, and I'll put Scheffler next in that pecking order since he's my top 10 lock. The question is how Rahm and Koepka will fare head-to-head. I'll give that edge to Koepka -- only a slight one -- since he's finished no worse than T17 in a major this season, complete with a win at the PGA Championship. While Rahm also has a major title to show this season after winning the Masters, he followed it up by finishing T50 at the PGA Championship before finishing T10 at the U.S. Open. That Rahm missed the cut in his last start nearly a month ago at the Travelers Championship only makes him feel like more of a wildcard.
Surprise prediction: Jordan Spieth goes home early: This might only count as a surprise due to the fact Spieth, in nine starts, has never missed the cut at the Open Championship. Alas, it's been a wildly inconsistent stretch for Spieth since May, one which started with a missed cut at the Wells Fargo Championship and then a wrist injury that forced him out of his hometown AT&T Byron Nelson. In the time since, he finished T29 at the PGA Championship and T5 at the Memorial Tournament. He's also missed the cut in three events during that stretch, including the U.S. Open and last week's Scottish Open. Spieth falls into the contender class sitting at 30-1 odds, but I'd be weary.
Lowest round: 65 (-6)
Winning score: 272 (-12)
Winner's Sunday score: 68 (-3)
