Wyndham Championship Predictions, Free Picks and Odds Aug 3-6

Wyndham Championship Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Wyndham Championship teeing off from Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the Wyndham Championship starting August 3!

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Wyndham Championship Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

The Course & Field – Sedgefield Country Club (Greensboro, North Carolina)

just list that, the final event of the regular season is upon us. Almost all of the big guns are taking the week off to rest for the three-week playoff run while this tournament serves as many players’ last hoorah to make the Top-70.

You likely will hear about several guys that are on the cusp and that they might be good bets to finish Top-10 or Top-20 because that is what they need to make the field next week.

While that narrative may be true, just remember, they have had all season to secure those finishes. Why suddenly “because they have to” will they go ahead and do it?

Don’t buy into the hype especially because bookmakers are not dumb. They will price accordingly. Instead, stick to the recipe that has gotten you this far in the season. Who’s playing well and who’s had past success at this venue.

Sedgefield CC is a Donald Ross design that rewards strong mid-to-short iron play. The course is not long playing just over 7,100 yards as a par 70, so many 2nd shots will fall between the 125 to 175-yard range.

Shorter hitters with a strong approach game have had plenty of success here with winners including JT Poston, Kevin Kisner, Jim Herman, Brandt Snedeker and even Tom Kim last year.

Kim putted lights out as he gained more than 12 strokes with his putter while he also ranked 12th in approach. Kisner in 2021 also ranked 12th in approach and 8th in putting.

Herman 4th in approach and 3rd in putting. Poston 1st in approach and 13th in putting. You can see the recipe for success. Hit good irons and roll the rock.

With winning scores reaching 20-under par in six of the last seven years, mediocre putting will not get the job done this week. Also, hone in your search on guys that are hot with the irons.

Hideki Matsuyama and Gary Woodland are tied atop this field averaging +0.80 SG Approach per round over the last six months while Matsuyama also leads at +1.13 over the last three months.

The issue? He has lost -0.26 and -0.22, respectively on the greens over that time. Denny McCarthy leads in SG Putting gaining a ridiculous +1.47 SG Putting per round over the last three months but is basically dead even on approach at +0.07. Ugh. Golf Outright betting is hard!

Weather looks like it could be an issue early in the tournament with rain showers and possible thunderstorms in the forecast on both Thursday and Friday which leaves the age old dilemma.

Grab the prices on the guys you like early in the week when they are the best, or wait until late Wednesday when the weather forecast is the most clear to determine if there is a possible advantage for either tee time wave.

My suggestion, if we were talking wind, it’s probably worth the wait, but with rain as the only issue, fire away and get the best of the number!

The field is mixed with those that played at The Open Championship and those that didn’t.  Even further, those that contended for four days versus those that didn’t make the weekend at Royal Liverpool.  

While the short turnaround could be a factor this week, just make sure you aren’t putting all your eggs into any one basket of those different scenarios.

Wyndham Championship Outright Winner

Lucas Glover +11000 (FanDuel)

He was a popular pick last week at around 50-1 and now his odds have fallen past 100-1 after one missed cut? Golf has some of the biggest recency bias in sports betting, but this seems like a ridiculous drop.

Heading into last week, Glover was all the rage with three straight Top-6 finishes at the Rocket Mortgage Classic (another Donald Ross design), John Deere Classic and the Barbasol Championship.

Those are all similar strength fields to this week. What did he do well to get there? Gained nearly 17 strokes on approach and over 6.5 strokes putting. Sounds just like the proven recipe for success here.

While his recent results have not been great at Sedgefield no Top-25 finishes in his last five trips including two missed cuts, he has played a total of 14 times at this event with five Top-25 finishes including a solo 7th as his best. He has plenty of experience and knowledge on this track and with his current form, I’ll throw a few bucks at over 100-1.

Wyndham Championship Leaderboard Finish

Alex Smalley Top-10 +600 | Top-20 +260 (DraftKings)

On any given week you will hear about that local kid that grew up in the area and played the course often, or a guy that had success in a collegiate tournament at the venue, or in the case of Alex Smalley, is a member at the club and should know every nook and cranny better than anyone else in the field.

I’m sure you will hear that narrative quite a bit this week, but it is definitely a little tidbit that could give Smalley enough of an edge to post another high finish.

Over his last nine starts, he has five finishes inside the Top-25 including a joint runner-up at the John Deere Classic.

Smalley may also be the most rested player in this field as he last event came at the Scottish Open. He happened to miss the cut there as that event snapped a streak of eight straight events in which he gained strokes on approach.

On the season, Smalley has been very consistent with his approach play as he ranks 15th in Greens in Regulation and 17th in Proximity to Hole.

Finally, he has made two starts at this event with strong finishes of a T29 in 2021 and a T13 last year. These are very good odds to get him to do it again this year.

Wyndham Championship Favorite to Fade

Justin Thomas +2500

I’m basically just copy and pasting JT’s name here again this week as he tries one last time to play his was into the Top-70 after missing the cut at the 3M Open, his second MC in a row.

The reason Thomas is in this predicament is that it simply hasn’t been a good year for him. In now 19 official starts this season, Thomas has just two Top-10 finishes and only two additional Top-20s.

Since attempting to defend his PGA Championship in May, he has been particularly poor with only one finish inside the Top-60 in eight starts to go along with five MCs.

Once again, you are paying the price on JT this week purely on his name, and while admittedly, this is longer odds than we would normally see for him in a field like this, it still isn’t in the ballpark of what I want to pay on a guy who is in poor form.

See you next week for the Fedex St Jude Championship!

Wyndham Championship Betting Preview From WagerTalk Extra!

Tune in later as Nick Borrman and Andy Lang collaborate on WagerTalk Extra to give their individual Wyndham Championship betting predictions and picks before this event tees off on Thursday. Get their outright winner plays, golfers to fade and even DFS options to take advantage of.

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