2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week
This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
The PGATOUR offers another elevated this week at Bay Hill. The Arnold Palmer Invitational will feature a field of 69 of the PGATOUR’s finest golfers with a 50-man cut for the weekend (and anyone within 10 shots of the lead). Who will adorn the famous red cardigan sweater come Sunday? Give our betting preview a read, and then take a look at this week’s betting card for the API.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
At the time of this writing – March 6th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.
2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week
- Course: Bay Hill
- Date: March 7 – 10
- Par: 72
- Yardage: 7,149
- Greens: Bermuda
Key Statistics
- SG: Approach
- Fairways Gained
- Bogey Avoidance
- Proximity 200+
- SG: Par 5
- SG: Putting
- Par 3: 200-225
Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGATOUR.
Sam Burns +2800 (FanDuel)
We will not deviate too much from our betting preview with the first couple of players on our card. Bay Hill demands that players keep bogeys off the scorecard. Sam Burns leads the field in this category.
Burns began 2024 on a tear and continues to amass good finishes. With multiple wins on his resume, we know that Burns has the requisite win equity and nerves to get the job done on Sunday. Besides being an incredible ball striker, Burns is an often comfortable watch on the weekend as he routinely makes his putts to save par or to score birdies.
At 28-1, we get better odds than the initial offering earlier in the week.
Matt Fitzpatrick +3300 (PointsBet)
Speaking of better odds and guys that can save pars, Matt Fitzpatrick finally showed some life at the Cognizant Classic. The normally above-average scrambler played pretty well at PGA National and moves to another comfortable course.
Fitzpatrick has a reputation for grinding out good rounds at the toughest courses. Over his last 100 rounds, he ranks 10th in bogey avoidance. However, he is not just a grinder. During that same timeframe, Fitzy ranks 8th in SG: Par 5. He can scramble and avoid bogeys while still taking advantage of scoring opportunities. Adding distance over the last couple of years, Fitzpatrick’s driver can be a weapon at a course where length can certainly help.
I think at 33-1, we are getting a good number on a guy who has great course history just on the cusp of returning to better form. Fitzpatrick joins our card and is my likely one-and-done selection this week.
Sahith Theegala +7500 (Caesar’s)
With a couple of bigger spends on our card, we look down the board for some savings on talented golfers. Sahith Theegala is a favorite of this column and brings a ballooned price this week to Bay Hill.
The loftier price doesn’t feel very warranted when looking at Theegala’s season thus far in 2024. While he didn’t perform that well at the Genesis, he posted another strong finish in Phoenix and a T20 at Pebble Beach. This is definitely a step up in class, but Theegala continues to show he belongs.
He leads this field in putting over his last 24 rounds and excels with approach shots above 200 yards. At 75-1, that feels like enough to convince me to bet him to win outright this week.
Tom Hoge +10000 (FanDuel)
Finally, we stumble upon the top golfer in my model over his last 24 rounds in Tom Hoge. Based on the categories detailed above, Hoge rates out as the top option in this week’s model.
Does that mean he is going to win? No. This week feels like a week for the upper-echelon golfers. That said, week after week on TOUR, we continue to see long shots pay off as the fields are less talented than in years past. Tom Hoge has won events on TOUR and contended at bigger events (PLAYERS Championship). He is off to a very strong start in 2024 and merits a look at a 100-1 bomb.
He isn’t in consideration for OAD play, but it could make sense as a top finisher bet at higher odds.
2024 API Betting Card
Arnold Palmer Units: 2
2024 Net Units: -13.9
We need to turn this season around with a win. We have had a handful of close calls lately. Check back to this article or on X for any additions to this week’s card.
Good luck with all of your golf betting picks and DFS lineups this week.
Follow me on X at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week, and thanks for reading.
