Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

The Arizona Diamondbacks (62-60) and San Diego Padres (58-64) meet Friday to continue a 4-game NL West series. First pitch at Petco Park is slated for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 5-5

Arizona won Thursday’s lid-lifter 3-1. Since dropping 9 straight games from Aug. 1-11, the Diamondbacks have rallied to win 5 of their last 6.

The Padres logged just 3 hits in Thursday’s loss. They have averaged just 3.56 runs per game over their last 9 (.638 OPS) despite twice scoring 10 runs in a game over this stretch.

Diamondbacks at Padres projected starters

RHP Brandon Pfaadt vs. RHP Seth Lugo

Pfaadt (0-6, 6.91 ERA) is tabbed for his 12th career start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 54 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 8 K in 5-4 loss at San Diego Sunday, his first against the Padres
• 2023 road stats: 0-2, 5-48 ERA in 23 IP across 4 starts
• Rookie truggled early; owns a 4.34 ERA over his last 5 starts

Lugo (4-6, 4.16 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 97 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 4 K in 5-4 home win vs. Arizona Sunday
• 2023 home stats: 2-4, 5.40 ERA in 40 IP across 8 starts
• Career starts vs. Arizona: 0-2, 5.06 ERA in 16 IP (2018-23)

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Diamondbacks at Padres odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:38 a.m. ET.

Diamondbacks at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Diamondbacks 3

Even with Thursday’s triumph, the Diamondbacks are just 10-19 over their last 29 games against San Diego.

The Padres are undervalued as far as talent-to-record is concerned. But as a betting proposition, they offer no value here. San Diego is a lean against the same pitcher they saw last week (and got to for 9 hits), but we should want a price of -165 or better.

The juice is drowning out value on this play: PASS.

Same problem as above: San Diego is a lean, the Friars -1.5 does not bring enough return until we get to the +120 level. PASS or perhaps keep an eye on this tag throughout the day.

Both starters have been undone by batting averages on balls in play over well .300. There is a little bit of bad luck in their surface lines

Both sides have season O/U results shading toward the Under. The Padres have been part of an Under in 64 of their last 112 games (+11.20 Units, 9% ROI).

The back ends of both bullpens got some rest last night and should be fully available Friday.

BET UNDER 8.5 (+100).

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