ATP Finals Betting Preview: Odds to Win, Zverev's Value in Turin, Best Bet
Here's how to spending your gambling dollars during the season-ending championships.
The Top 8 men's players in the world are in Turin, Italy for the ATP Finals from November 12 to November 19. Any time you get this group of players out there, you’re guaranteed some high-level action. But it’s Novak Djokovic that will be the focus of this event. He’s the defending champion, he's almost certain to clinch the year-end No. 1 ranking—and everybody will be gunning for him.
The format: the eight players are divided up into two groups of four. We’ll then see round-robin play amongst the two groups, with every player facing every other person in the group once. The two players with the best records from each group will advance to the semifinals, where the tournament then moves to a standard single-elimination format.
With that in mind, keep reading to see who I think will make it out of each group, and make sure you go all the way to the bottom for my best bet to win the entire event. (Odds to win title in parentheses.)
- Novak Djokovic (+140)
- Jannik Sinner (+500)
- Stefanos Tsitsipas (+1400)
- Holger Rune (+2000)
It’s hard to picture a scenario in which Djokovic doesn’t come out of this group. He comes into this event on an 18-match winning streak, all of which came on hard courts. Also, while indoor and outdoor conditions can be wildly different, Djokovic showed the world that it doesn’t matter to him by winning the Rolex Paris Masters last week. In fact, he's now won 80% of his indoor matches for his career.
On top of that, Djokovic is a combined 17-5 against the other players in this group. He has never lost to Sinner and he has won nine in a row against Tsitsipas, after starting his career 2-3 against the Greek. Rune is actually 2-2 against Djokovic, but the Serb did just win a tight three-set match against the 20-year-old in Paris.
As for the other spot, I like Tsitsipas’ chances of getting to the semifinals. Sinner has been the best player of the remaining three for most of the season, but Tsitsipas is 5-2 against the Italian in their head-to-head history. And while Sinner did win their most recent matchup, in Rotterdam, Tsitsipas has flashed some impressive form over the last few months. I think his combination of a big serve and huge forehand gives him the edge over the other two. Sinner has made a lot of strides when it comes to proving he can win big matches this year, but the ATP Finals are as big as it gets outside of majors. I just wouldn’t be surprised if he plays a loose game or two on his own serve, and that ultimately does him in against Tsitsipas. After all, the pressure on Sinner will be hard to imagine with this being a home tournament for him.
As for Rune, I don’t have much faith in him right now. He has looked a lot better in recent weeks, but he’s a long ways away from the player he was at the end of 2022 and the start of 2023.
- Carlos Alcaraz (+350)
- Daniil Medvedev (+550)
- Andrey Rublev (+1400)
- Alexander Zverev (+2000)
This is a group has the potential to get a little chaotic, as Alcaraz hasn’t been the dominant force he was early in the year. He's coming into this tournament after having lost two matches in a row: to Grigor Dimitrov in Shanghai, and then lost Roman Safiullin, in straight sets, in Paris. Of course, Alcaraz can turn it on at any given moment. But coming into this particular event in bad form isn't ideal especially considering he lost to Medvedev at the US Open. I ultimately do think that the Spaniard will get through here, as I just have a hard time believing he’ll lose two of his three matches. I just don’t feel as good about Alcaraz getting through as I do Djokovic.
For the second spot in this group, I like Medvedev to grab it. Not only does he now know that he can beat Alcaraz, but he has been somewhat dominant against both Rublev and Zverev in the past. But I think it’s worth throwing a half-unit on Zverev to win the group at +500. I know I didn’t pick him to advance, but that’s great value for a player with a big serve and powerful strokes from the baseline. I think Zverev will likely beat Rublev in their head-to-head matchup, and his meeting with Medvedev is close to a toss-up. So, it isn’t outrageous to think that he’ll win two or three matches here, especially at that price.
The year-end tournaments can generally be a little wild, but we just saw Iga Swiatek dominate on her way to winning the WTA Finals—something I gave out at +260 odds. And while it’s a little boring to go with the chalk in both events, I think Djokovic is going to run through the field here. I would have had some doubts about the 24-time Grand Slam champion before he won the title in Paris, but he now comes into this event with form and motivation. Djokovic has been outspoken about his desire to continue racking up titles and putting his footprint on this sport. Nobody in this field wants it as bad as him, and that will make him hard to deny.
