ATP Finals tennis betting tips: Day one preview and best bets

Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals, Sunday

1.5pts tie-break in Jannik Sinner v Stefanos Tsitsipas at 9/10 (Unibet, BetUK)

0.5pt over 12.5 games in first set of Sinner v Tsitsipas at 3/1 (Sky Bet)

1.5pts Novak Djokovic most aces v Holger Rune at 4/5 (bet365)

0.5pt Djokovic to beat Rune 2-1 at 3/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Jannik Sinner v Stefanos Tsitsipas (not before 1330 GMT)

Tsitsipas leads the pair’s head-to-head 5-2 but I’m not convinced that will hold much sway here.

Sinner in in better form having won titles recently in Vienna and Beijing. He’s beaten Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev (twice) and Andrey Rublev since the US Open and, on home soil, looks a bona fide contender in Turin.

Tsitsipas, on the other hand, has struggled to beat the big names – he’s just 1-6 this year against top-10 players.

It’s also notable that the pair’s matches this season have been much closer than that 5-2 H2H might suggest.

Sinner won the last meeting – on indoor hard in Rotterdam – when he didn’t face a break point. Prior to that, the pair had met at the Australian Open with Tsitsipas edging that contest in five sets.

In short, I think the Italian wins this but he’s only 4/9 so the better betting angle may well lie elsewhere.

Last year, Turin’s Greenset Grand Prix courts and slight altitude produced some of the fastest conditions on the tour and, as a result, there were tie-breaks aplenty with eight of the 12 group-stage matches seeing a breaker.

Overall, in its two-year stint as host venue, the Pala Alpitour has seen a tie-break in 16 of its 30 ATP Finals singles matches.

In Sinner and Tsitsipas, this contest has two of the top servers on the ATP Tour.

Tsitsipas leads the tour for service games won this season (88.7%), while Sinner is in sixth place (87.1%).

Given the expected conditions, it’s not hard to see serve holding sway here, especially given the relative paucity of Tsitsipas’ return game (he’s down in 30th for return games won on the tour in 2023).

You can get 9/10 about there being a tie-break in this match and that looks worth taking – there’s every chance prices in this market tumble as the tournament progresses.

A smaller bet on a first-set breaker also looks worth a try at 3/1.

Novak Djokovic v Holger Rune (not before 2000 GMT)

There’s no doubt Rune’s game causes Djokovic a few problems.

The pair have met four times and the head-to-head stands at 2-2. Notably, Rune has won at least a set every time.

The most recent clash came just over a week ago at the Paris Masters when a below-par Djokovic (he was ill that week) scraped his way to victory, winning 6-4 in the final set.

Perhaps most worrying for potential Rune backers is the fact he created only one break point that day; as highlighted above, conditions here are set to be faster.

As suggested in my outright preview, I’d also expect total focus from Djokovic.

He said on Friday that he’s main goal this week was simply to secure the year-end world number one spot – and he’ll do that if he wins this match.

Perhaps the value call is to back a 2-1 victory for Djokovic which is on offer at 3/1, although it’s not a bet I’m hugely confident about so we'll keep stakes small.

In the sub-markets, Djokovic to serve the most aces looks the play at 4/5.

He’s landed this in all four previous meetings, the winning margins being, most recent first, 2-1-2-16.

The Serb is a man with the ability to really hit his spots. Throw in the additional pace and I think he’ll win this market again.

Posted at 1840 GMT on 11/11/23

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org