Big Ten Championship: Iowa vs. Michigan odds, picks, prediction
The Michigan Wolverines passed their biggest test of the 2023 season last weekend with a 30-24 win over Ohio State. It felt like a de facto Big Ten title game and a College Football Playoff eliminator, but there’s still work to be done for the No. 2 team in the country.
Michigan is a 24-point favorite over Iowa in the Big Ten Championship on Saturday night.
Iowa vs. Michigan prediction: Analysis
If you’re a college football fanatic, you know all the jokes about the Iowa Hawkeyes. They can’t score, their punter is their best player and the coaching staff tries to win games 9-7. The Hawkeyes are no strangers to games with historically low totals, but that doesn’t seem to bother them. Plus, you just can’t get rid of them.
It goes without saying, but Iowa does its best work when they don’t have the ball. The Hawkeye defense ranks 12th in rushing success rate, 22nd in line yards, 10th in passing success rate and third in finishing drives. This is a bend-don’t-break unit that always seems to step up with a big play when it matters most. If the Hawkeyes even had an average defense, they would be a national title contender.
Michigan’s defense is one of the best units in the country and shouldn’t be put through the paces against an Iowa attack that ranks outside the top-120 in both passing and rushing success rate.
While Michigan is far and away a better team than Iowa, this is quite a large spread to cover against a defense that does stand a decent chance of keeping things respectable (at least relative to the spread). Additionally, both of these offenses move quite slow and prefer to establish the run, which should shorten the game and make it tougher for the Wolverines to cover this number.
It’s an ugly bet to make, but take the points with Iowa and hope that the offense can find a way to get on the board.
Iowa vs. Michigan prediction: Pick
The Bet: Iowa +24 (DraftKings)
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