Blue Jays picks vs. Yankees Sept. 28: Bet on Toronto's offence to bust out

The Toronto Blue Jays will attempt to avoid a sweep when they wrap up their three-game set against the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has been shut out in back-to-back contests but has a clear pitching advantage for the series finale and we're looking to take advantage of that. Luke Weaver and Chris Bassitt will be on the bump for the 7:07 p.m. ET start.

MLB oddsas of 2:33 p.m. ET on 09/28/2023.

Blue Jays picks vs. Yankees

Best Bet: Jays to lead after 3 innings (-106)

We're ignoring the results of the last two days and betting on Toronto's offence. It might not seem like a sound strategy but the Jays have a significantly easier assignment tonight.

While Toronto's offence has shown nothing versus the Yankees, it did have to deal with Michael King and Gerrit Cole.

King has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since joining New York's rotation, leading all starters in FIP and ranking second in K rate this month.

As for Cole, he's the AL Cy Young favourite and recorded his sixth 200-plus strikeout season.

Weaver, meanwhile, is pitching for his third team this season and enters tonight's start with a 6.47 ERA. Last year, he had a mark of 6.56.

Though Weaver has pitched in an unkind environment for much of the season, throwing 97 innings with the Cincinnati Reds — who have one of MLB's most hitter-friendly parks — he has gotten crushed on the road, too.

Here's a look at Weaver's season-long stats and MLB ranks among pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings:

• FIP: 5.55 (sixth-worst)
• ERA: 6.47 (second-worst)
• HR/9 rate: 2.03 (third-worst)

Weaver is also top 10 in home run/fly ball rate with the second-highest opponent's batting average. He has stumbled out of the gates, allowing 10 homers in the first inning along with a .386/.438/.754 slash line. His OPS after three innings is .873.

The right-hander gets hit hard and often and presents the Jays with a perfect opportunity to get out to an early lead.

If you're willing to pay a bit more, the Jays to lead after five innings (-141) feels a bit safer but with Bassitt on the hill (3.08 ERA at home), we're still comfortable with this pick. New York is 25th in OPS and last in batting average this month.

Key stat: Toronto has either been ahead or tied after three innings in more than 70% of Bassitt's 32 starts.

Quick pick

Toronto over 4.5 runs (-120): We're looking for another way to bet against Weaver and this feels like one of the better ways to go.

Toronto is a heavy moneyline favourite, so the reward doesn't outweigh the risk when picking them to win. Betting the Jays on the run line or targeting player props are valid alternatives, but we're confident this is the play.

The Blue Jays cleared this team total in five of six games ahead of the Yankees series and Weaver has allowed four-plus runs in 13 of his 24 starts.

If Toronto does what it's supposed to do against him, it won't need to deliver much against New York's bullpen for this to cash.