Blue Jays vs. Astros prop bets: Bet on Matt Chapman to keep producing

Following a six-game homestand, the Toronto Blue Jays are on the road for six straight starting tonight against the Houston Astros.

The pregame narrative: A good pitching matchup in the series opener will see Kevin Gausman and Cristian Javier toe the rubber and we’ve found a way to capitalize on that. We’re also targeting hit machine Matt Chapman on another generous line.

MLB odds as of 3:57 p.m. ET on 04/17/23.

Blue Jays vs. Astros prop bets

Best Bet: Chapman to record a hit (-134)

While it’s important not to overpay, it’s also wise not to get scared off by a little juice. Sometimes it’s worth the squeeze and that’s how we feel about tonight’s best prop bet.

Matt Chapman is second in the American League in hits, tied with teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and trailing only fellow Blue Jay Bo Bichette.

Chapman has recorded at least one hit in 13 of the 15 games he has played, with multi-hit efforts in eight of them. That has helped him take an AL-leading .421 batting average into tonight’s contest.

Yet he can be had at -134 to record a hit.

Guerrero, a better overall hitter to be sure, is -245 on the same prop. Daulton Varsho, batting .264 and a career .235 hitter, is -150. Light-hitting Kevin Kiermaier is -141. Houston’s Alex Bregman is -220.

You can’t even get Bichette at 0.5, as you’d have to pay for a 1.5 line (+205 for the over and -278 for the under).

Chapman will obviously slow and has only hit above .250 once in his career but this feels grossly mispriced, making it a worthwhile prop to hunt tonight.

Key stat: Chapman is second in MLB in batting average on balls in play (.500) and second in hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.

Quick picks

Cristian Javier over 17.5 outs (-127): We like under 8.5 runs tonight and the Astros as a plus-money home underdog and Javier is part of the reason.

The righty faces a difficult opponent but has excelled at home, with a career 2.57 ERA over 175 innings. He has held opposing hitters to a measly .173 average and .584 OPS in 43 home outings (24 starts).

Javier needs to complete six innings for this bet to cash, which he has done twice in three starts. His excellent control should help him limit self-inflicted damage and work deeper — his 2.8% walk rate is the fourth-lowest mark among starters.

Kyle Tucker over 1.5 total bases (+123): Every player outside of Bichette has plus-money odds on their total bases prop tonight. Kyle Tucker is the one we like best.

The lefty power hitter has only topped this line seven times in 16 games, but he destroys right-handed pitching (.636 slugging vs. RHP in 2023, .507 for his career) and a high walk rate (ninth in MLB) helps explain that.

Tucker faces a righty tonight but should have a tough time drawing walks. Gausman has issued three walks in three starts and sports the AL’s seventh-lowest BB%.

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.