Blue Jays vs. Rays prop bets: Yandy Diaz has great value on bases prop

The Toronto Blue Jays open a four-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays tonight at Tropicana Field.

The pregame narrative: Chris Bassitt looks like the perfect guy to get Toronto out of its slump, and we’re backing him to work deep into tonight’s game. We also like plus-money plays for Yandy Diaz and Matt Chapman.

Here are our top Blue Jays vs. Rays prop bets for May 22.

MLB odds as of 10:40 a.m. ET on 05/22/23.

Blue Jays vs. Rays prop bets

Best Bet: Bassitt over 18.5 outs (+123)

Bassitt’s first impression with the Blue Jays was not a good one. But that doesn’t appear to be a lasting impression, as the veteran right-hander has settled into an exceptional groove.

After allowing nine runs on 10 hits (four homers) in his season debut in St. Louis, Bassitt has been hard at work shaving down his ERA. He now sits at a 3.05 ERA thanks to a 27-inning scoreless streak entering Monday.

Also, after Bassitt was chased in the fourth inning of his Blue Jays debut, he’s worked six or more frames in seven of eight starts since.

We’ll need Bassitt to record at least one out in the seventh tonight to cash this prop, but that seems perfectly attainable for him.

Bassitt is accustomed to a hearty pitch count, averaging 101.4 pitches per outing since April 7. His 64.5% strike rate is a half-percent up from the league average, and his 65.0% first-pitch strike rate is the highest of his career.

Given that Toronto played three extra-inning games over its past five days, the team could be further incentivized to push Bassitt deep into tonight’s ballgame. And if he pitches anything like we’ve seen recently, his results can carry him far anyway.

Key stat: Bassitt has gone over 18.5 outs in five of his past six starts, including a complete game against the Braves on May 12.

Quick picks

Diaz over 1.5 bases (+107): We have no prior history to speak of between Diaz and Bassitt, but that doesn’t matter here. We can’t pass on a plus-money bases prop for the Rays’ talented leadoff hitter.

Diaz has multiple bases in five of his past six games, as well as 22 of 41 (53.7%) overall.

From the leadoff spot, he sees tons of at-bats. And his strikeout rate (14.7%) ranks in the 87th percentile, per Baseball Savant, so expect him to put the ball in play if he’s taking his bat off his shoulder.

Chapman over 0.5 RBIs (+143): After earning AL Player of the Month honours in April, Chapman has earned a reality check in May.

Through 19 games this month, he’s got a .284 SLG (down 403 points from April) and has driven in just three runs.

The reason we’re picking him here is that the RBI opportunities for Chapman haven’t waned. He’s still batting in the Nos. 3-5 spots every night, and he’s had 25 plate appearances in May with runners in scoring positions. That’s tied for the 12th-most in the majors.

Of course, Chapman is hitting an unsightly .095 with RISP, but the consistent opportunity is compelling nonetheless.

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