Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Prediction 8-10-23 MLB Picks

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10 August 2023

The Kansas City Royals and the Boston Red Sox meet Thursday in MLB action from Fenway Park. This will be the finale in a four-game series. These teams split the first two games, then on Wednesday the Red Sox eked out a victory to pull ahead. Check back all season long for free MLB picks at Sports Chat Place.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals took a 6-2 loss in the Monday opener of this set, then bounced back for a 9-3 win in game two. Michael Massey had a homer and three RBI in the victory. On Wednesday in game three Kansas City had seven hits in a 4-3 loss. MJ Melendez led the way on two solo homers, and Freddy Fermin added a home run of his own.

In the starter role for the finale the Royals are going with Alec Marsh. So far Marsh is 0-5 with a 6.75 ERA in seven games (six starts). He’s got 32 Ks in 28.0 total frames. Marsh is coming off three earned in 4.0 frames versus Philadelphia in his last outing.

Kansas City Royals Team Facts

The Royals have lost seven of their last eight games at Fenway Park against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
The Royals have covered the run line in five of their last six games against the Red Sox following a loss.
The Royals have lost the first inning in each of their last five Thursday games against opponents that held a winning record.
The Royals have led after 7 innings in four of their last six games as underdogs against American League opponents.
The Royals have led after 3 innings in four of their last six games as underdogs against American League opponents.

Kansas City Royals Player Prop Facts

MJ Melendez has hit at least one home run in three of the Royals' last four games as underdogs.
Bobby Witt Jr. has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Royals' last nine night games.
MJ Melendez has scored at least one run in seven of the Royals' last eight games against the Red Sox.
MJ Melendez has recorded three or more total bases in each of the Royals' last four games as underdogs.
MJ Melendez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Royals' last 12 games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
Bobby Witt Jr. ranks 4th in the league in Steals (34) this season.

Boston Red Sox

Over on the Boston side, they had just six hits in the Tuesday loss. Jarren Duran, Adam Duvall (homer) and Connor Wong each posted an RBI in that one. On Wednesday the Red Sox got three hits from Pablo Reyes and a solo homer from Triston Casas on the way to the win.

James Paxton will take the starter role for the Red Sox on Thursday. Across his 14 starts this year Paxton is 6-3 with a 3.60 ERA and 84 Ks in 75.0 innings. Paxton is 3-2 with a 3.93 ERA in his last seven starts, giving up 16 earned in 36.2 innings total.

Boston Red Sox Team Facts

The Red Sox have won 13 of their last 14 games following a home win.
The underdogs have covered the run line in seven of the Red Sox's last eight games at Fenway Park.
The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven Thursday games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
The Red Sox have trailed after 7 innings in six of their last nine games as favorites against American League opponents.
The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last nine games as favorites against American League opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

Trevor Story has hit at least one home run in three of his last four Thursday appearances with his team as a favorite.
Connor Wong has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five home appearances against AL Central opponents.
Rafael Devers has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
James Paxton has recorded seven or more strikeouts in seven of his eight previous appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
Connor Wong has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven home appearances against AL Central opponents.
Connor Wong has recorded at least one total base in each of his last seven home appearances against AL Central opponents.
Masataka Yoshida ranks 8th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.304) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

The Boston Red Sox ranks 2nd in the league for doubles this season (250).
The Boston Red Sox ranks 4th in the league for batting average this season (.261).
The Kansas City Royals ranks 1st in the league for triples this season (30).
The Kansas City Royals ranks 29th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.298).

ANDREW’S FREE PICK

I’ll lean toward the Red Sox in this one. The line's too thick to mess with, though. Paxton needs to bounce back from a shaky start in his last outing, though. On August 4 Paxton put up four earned on nine this and two walks in 5.0 innings during a loss to the Blue Jays. He’d been pitching pretty well before that however, with three earned in his previous 11.0 innings. I think Paxton will do pretty well here—a quality start seems feasible. On Wednesday Boston had one big inning and held on for the win in a fairly tepid offensive effort. The Sox have three or more runs in all three games of this series though, so I think they’ll keep it rolling in the finale.