Braves vs. Dodgers Picks, Predictions & Odds: Atlanta Has Huge Pitching Edge

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31 August 2023

The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers have won two of the lastthree World Series, and they have the two best records in Major League Baseballentering the opener of a massive four-game series. We dive into our best Bravesvs. Dodgers picks based on the best MLB odds.

The Braves and Dodgers are in the driver's seat to win the World Series this year, according to FanGraphs. An NLCSmatchup between two teams likely to win 100-plus games would be appointment viewing,just as it was in 2020 and 2021 when the teams faced each other with a trip to the World Series on the line.

Atlanta is a season-high 42games over .500 after winning 16 of its last 21 games. To beat the franchiserecord of 106 wins set in 1998, the Braves would have to go 20-10 in theirfinal 30 games.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles isthe fourth team to win 20-plus games in a month this season, and its 23 wins inAugust are the most by a team in a calendar month, beating out the Tampa BayRays’ 22 April wins.

Here is our best Braves vs. Dodgers pick(odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Braves vs. Dodgers pick

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Braves ML (-134 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Though Atlanta is 13.5games clear of its competition in the NL East, it is only four games ahead ofLos Angeles in the race for home-field advantage in the NL playoffs. And theway that the Braves navigated their pitching rotation in the last series, namelythrusting Darius Vines into a starting role to get their rotation extra rest,means they are treating this like a playoff series.

The maneuvering of therotation allowed Spencer Strider to get the start in the opener, and in hislast appearance, he matched Dwight Gooden for the fewest starts ever needed toreach 400 strikeouts, per ESPN Stats & Info.Strider is seventh in the NL with a 3.46 ERA and is looking to break a tie withChicago Cubs southpaw Justin Steele for the MLB lead in wins (they each have15).

Dodgers righty Lance Lynnhas made five appearances with the team and allowed six home runs in 31innings. That is a dangerous way to make a living against a Braves offense withseven players with 20-plus home runs (no other team has more than four).

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Atlantais balanced offensively in either split, leading the majors in OPS againstright-handed and left-handed pitchers. And the Braves can rely on theirpitching if their offense can't break through for a big hit, asevidenced by the fact that they became the first time in Coors Field history towin a game after producing 15-plus hits but three or fewer runs, per Justin Toscano.

With Mookie Betts andFreddie Freeman as fixtures at the top of the Dodgers lineup, Los Angeles hadthe highest OPS (.987) from the 1-2 hitters in its lineup entering yesterday ofany team in MLB history. However, Atlanta’s .905 OPS from its 1-2 hitters isnot far behind as the fourth-highest of all-time, but we much prefer the depthof its lineup to that of the Dodgers.

Los Angeles is every bitthe World Series contender Atlanta is, but it's a little overvalued entering thismatchup after sweeping the Arizona Diamondbacks for its 11th consecutive winagainst NL West teams. Give us the team with the better starting pitcher anddeeper lineup.

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Braves vs. Dodgers best odds

With our other best sports betting apps more aligned with moneyline odds from -140 to -142, FanDuel jumps out asthe best value play for Braves backers. With the wagers split 59/41 in favor ofAtlanta early Wednesday morning, it will be interesting to see if the oddscontinue to rise or if sportsbooks will be content with that two-way action andhave limited fluctuation throughout the day.

Braves vs. Dodgers odds

Braves vs. Dodgers odds analysis

Interestingly, DraftKings opened thelowest of any shop, with the Braves -130. And while the odds there have movedas much as 12 points to -142, FanDuel has yet to budge off its opening number of-134 since late Wednesday night. However, despite being the most affordablesportsbook from a moneyline perspective, BetMGM matches it as the best run lineodds, paying +125 to those who lay the -1.5 runs with the Braves.

FanDuel also differs the most from theothers on the total, as it is the only shop offering an O/U of 8.5 runs (Over+100/Under -122), while all of our other best sports betting sites have a total of 8.0. Of those that havean eight-run total, DraftKings (-112), BetRivers (-115), and Caesars (-120) areall juiced to the Over.