Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

The Milwaukee Brewers (52-42) kick off a 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies (51-42) Tuesday. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting

The Brewers opened the 2nd half with a 3-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds and have won 6 of their last 7 games to move into 1st place in the NL Central. Milwaukee has won its last 5 games away from home to give them a 26-21 road record that is identical to their home mark.

The Phillies have been hot as well, as they took 3 of 4 from the San Diego Padres over the weekend and are 12-5 in their last 17 games. Philadelphia remains 10 1/2 games back in the NL East despite its recent surge.

Brewers at Phillies projected starters

RHP Julio Teheran vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Teheran (2-3, 3.64 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 through 47 IP.

• Posted a 1.53 ERA over his first 6 starts despite some soft skills but regression has set in as he has allowed 13 ER across 11 2/3 IP across his last 2 turns
• Has registered a 4.50 ERA with 7 K and 6 HR allowed in 18 IP over 3 road starts

Nola (8-6, 4.39 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 119 IP.

• Has a 3.40 ERA, 9.8 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 7 home starts
• Struggling more than usual with home runs to the tune of a career-worst 1.6 HR/9
• Been missing plenty of bats lately, with 55 K in 44 1/3 IP across his last 7 starts, including a pair of 12 K performances

Brewers at Phillies odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:41 a.m. ET.

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Brewers at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Brewers 3

Teheran had luck on his side early on but has gotten roughed up in his last 2 starts. Philadelphia (-210) has the clear pitching edge in this one with Nola on the hill and they should win the game, but the price here is a little steep and better value can be found elsewhere.

PASS.

The Phillies are 11th in the league with 4.76 runs per game at home and they scored 6-plus runs in each of the final 3 games of their weekend series against the Padres. Their bats should stay hot enough against Teheran to come out on top by multiple runs.

Back the PHILLIES -1.5 (+110).

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Nola has been homer-prone but the swing-and-miss stuff has been on display in recent weeks. He will square off against a Milwaukee offense that is bottom 5 in both runs per game and OPS away from home. Nola should keep the Brewer bats relatively quiet so look for this game to sneak in just under the total.

A small play on UNDER 9.5 (-120) looks like the way to go here.

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