Phillies vs. Brewers Prediction: MLB Betting Lines & Picks

Christian Yelich takes a two-game homer streak into the Milwaukee Brewers’ (52-42) game against the Philadelphia Phillies (51-42) at 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday, at Citizens Bank Park.

The Brewers are road underdogs (+171) at the Phillies (-203). The over/under for this game is set at 9.5.

The betting trends in what follows reference odds valid as of July 18, 2023 at 5:20 AM ET. Ready to bet?

Phillies vs Brewers Betting Lines

Phillies Betting Insights

• The Phillies have been favorites in 55 games this season and won 34 (61.8%) of those contests.
• Philadelphia has a record of 7-5 in games when bookmakers favor them by at least -203 on the moneyline.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Phillies have a 67% chance to win.
• Philadelphia’s games have gone over the total in 39 of its 93 chances.
• In 93 games with a spread this season, the Phillies are 42-51-0 ATS.

Phillies Last 10 Games Trend

Brewers Betting Insights

• The Brewers have come away with 25 wins in the 45 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• Milwaukee has been listed as an underdog of +171 or more on two occasions this season and lost both games.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Brewers have a 36.9% chance of pulling out a win.
• Milwaukee and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 41 of its 94 opportunities.
• The Brewers are 46-48-0 against the spread in their 94 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Brewers Last 10 Games Trend

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Phillies Probable Pitcher – Aaron Nola

• Nola and his team have a record of 7-12-0 against the spread when he starts.
• The right-hander’s last start was on Sunday, July 9, when he tossed six innings while giving up four earned runs on eight hits in a matchup with the Miami Marlins.
• Nola has 18 starts in a row of five innings or more.
• He has finished two appearances without allowing an earned run in 19 chances this season.
• When Nola starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 7-4.
• In games Nola has started, his team is 9-10.
• In games Nola has started this season, the teams are 10-7-2 at hitting the over.

Phillies Relief Pitchers

Brewers Probable Pitcher – Julio Teheran

• Teheran (2-3 with a 3.64 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 47 2/3 innings pitched) gets the start for the Brewers, his ninth of the season.
• In his last appearance on Monday, July 3, the righty tossed six innings against the Chicago Cubs, allowing six earned runs while surrendering nine hits.
• Teheran will aim to pitch five or more innings for his ninth straight start. He’s averaging 5.9 frames per outing.
• In two of his eight total appearances this season he has not given up an earned run.
• The Brewers are 2-4 in Teherán’s six starts this season that they were the moneyline underdog.
• Teherán’s team has a 3-5 record in his eight starts.
• Teheran has had eight starts with a total this season, and the teams combined to hit the over in two of those outings.

Brewers Relief Pitchers

Phillies Hitting Trends

• The Phillies have put up at least two dingers in 29 games this season, and are 22-7 in those outings.
• Philadelphia is 18-6 in games this season when it has put up five or more extra-base hits.
• The club is 40-22 in the games this season it has collected at least eight hits.
• Philadelphia is 37-5 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
• The Phillies have gone 22-8 over the 30 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Brewers Hitting Trends

• They have won 35 of the 42 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
• Milwaukee is undefeated in eight games this season with five or more extra-base hits as a team.
• In 49 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 36-13.
• Milwaukee has won 45 of its 52 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
• They have won 26 of their 34 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Phillies vs. Brewers Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Phillies (-203)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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