Nuggets vs. Heat Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets

The Denver Nuggets (45-20) visit the Miami Heat (35-29) after winning three road games in a row. The Nuggets are favored by only 3 points in the contest, which tips at 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, March 13, 2024. The over/under is 215 in the matchup.

Nuggets vs. Heat Odds

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Nuggets and Heat Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

When they have played as at least 3-point favorites this season, the Nuggets are 22-26-2 against the spread.

When they have played as at least 3-point underdogs this year, the Heat are 12-10 against the spread.

These teams average a combined 225.5 points per game, 10.5 more points than the total of 215 set for this game.

Denver and Miami have seen its opponents average a combined 5.6 more points per game than the over/under of 215 set for this outing.

The average total the Nuggets have had set in games this season is 10.7 more points than this outing’s point total.

The average point total for Miami this year is 5.4 points higher than this game’s over/under.

Denver is 29-34-2 against the spread this season.

The Heat’s ATS record is 31-31-2 this season.

Nuggets Stats & Insights

The Nuggets average 115.0 points per game (15th in the league) while allowing 110.7 per outing (seventh in the NBA). They have a +283 scoring differential overall and outscore opponents by 4.3 points per game.

The Nuggets win the rebound battle by 2.2 boards on average. They record 44.3 rebounds per game, which ranks eighth in the league, while their opponents grab 42.1 per outing.

Denver connects on 11.5 three-pointers per game (27th in the league) at a 36.9% rate (13th in the NBA), compared to the 11.4 its opponents make while shooting 36.3% from deep.

The Nuggets average 119.4 points per 100 possessions on offense (seventh in the league), and allow 114.9 points per 100 possessions (11th in the NBA).

The Nuggets have scored at a much higher clip in home games than away from home in the 2023-24 season (118.9 at home versus 111.0 on the road), though they have given up fewer points at home than on the road (109.6 opponent points per home game versus 111.8 on the road).

Heat Stats & Insights

The Heat have a +36 scoring differential, putting up 110.5 points per game (27th in league) and allowing 109.9 (sixth in NBA).

The 42.1 rebounds per game Miami accumulates rank 24th in the league. Their opponents collect 42.9.

The Heat hit 12.4 three-pointers per game (17th in the league) at a 37.5% rate (11th in NBA), compared to the 13.3 their opponents make, shooting 36.1% from deep.

The Heat average 115.0 points per 100 possessions on offense (20th in league), and allow 114.4 points per 100 possessions (eighth in NBA).

At home, Miami averages 113.5 points per game. On the road, it scores 107.7.

Nuggets Key Players to Watch

The Nuggets get 26.2 points, 12.3 rebounds and 9.2 assists from Nikola Jokic.

Michael Porter Jr. makes more threes per game than any other (active) member of the Nuggets, knocking down shots from beyond the arc at a clip of 2.7 per contest.

Jokic averages 1.3 steals per game, while Peyton Watson has 1.0 block per contest.

Heat Key Players to Watch

Bam Adebayo is at the top of the Heat scoring and rebounding leaderboards with 19.9 points per game and 10.4 rebounds per game to go with 4.0 assists per contest this season.

Jimmy Butler’s per-game averages this season are 21.7 points, 4.9 assists and 5.5 rebounds.

Duncan Robinson cashes in on 2.9 treys per game.

The Heat’s defensive efforts get a boost from Jaime Jaquez Jr.’s 1.1 steals and Adebayo’s 1.0 block per game.

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