Diamondbacks-Yankees prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, September 22

The Arizona Diamondbacks (81-72) ride a five-game winning streak into New York for a crucial three-game set against the Yankees (77-76) starting on Friday night, with first pitch from Yankee Stadium set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Arizona will send rookie righty Brandon Pfaadt (2-8, 5.86 ERA) to the mound, while New York counters with former D-back Luke Weaver (2-5, 6.77) in his second start with the team.

The Yankees have been left behind in the AL Wild Card chase after dropping two of three to Toronto earlier this week. Arizona, meanwhile, enters play tonight two games up on the Marlins and Cubs for the second spot in the NL. This upcoming six-game road trip is huge for them, as they’ll have winnable games against the Yankees and White Sox before finishing the regular season at home against the Astros next weekend.

New York enters as narrow -112 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the D-backs at -108. The run total is set at 8.

Diamondbacks-Yankees picks: Friday, September 22

Injury report

Diamondbacks

Out: RP Scott McGough (shoulder)

Yankees

Day to day: OF Everson Pereira (hamstring), RP Wandy Peralta (triceps)
Out: OF Jasson Dominguez (elbow), RP Keynan Middleton (shoulder), OF Billy McKinney (back)

Starting pitchers

Brandon Pfaadt vs. Luke Weaver

A top-100 prospect entering the season, Pfaadt was given a rude welcome to the Majors earlier this year, eventually being sent back down to Triple-A. Given a second chance in Arizona’s rotation, though, he’s acquitted himself fairly well in the second half, with a 4.18 ERA in 11 appearances (10 starts) since the All-Star break. He’s coming off arguably his best start in the bigs, firing 5.1 shutout innings with six Ks in a win over the Cubs last weekend. Pfaadt doesn’t have a particularly deep repertoire, largely throwing just a fastball and sweeper — the latter is a very good pitch, though (.159 BA against, 33% whiff rate) and the righty-heavy Yankees have been very susceptible to right-handed sliders this year.

Weaver is now on his third MLB team this season, and he hasn’t been particularly effective for any of them. The righty started the year in Cincinnati, then was picked up off waivers by the Mariners in late August ... only for Seattle to cut him loose as well after he gave up three runs on seven hits in just 3.2 innings against the Athletics. New York signed him two weeks ago in need of warm bodies to soak up innings, but he didn’t fare much better in his Yankees debut, allowing three runs on four hits and two walks against the Pirates last weekend.

Over/Under pick

Given Weaver’s track record, this number feels a bit too low. The righty has allowed four or more runs in 14 of his 23 starts this season, and Arizona is plenty familiar with him from his time with the D-backs. If he delivers a repeat performance tonight, I think New York will be able to contribute just enough against Pfaadt to push us over this total.

Pick: Over 8

Moneyline pick

I’m a bit confused by this line, considering that Arizona 1) is the team with something to play for, 2) has the better starting pitcher on the mound and 3) has been the better lineup so far this month. Pfaadt is exactly the kind of arm New York has made look better than he actually is, while Weaver has yet to show he can get through an MLB lineup multiple times. At better than even odds, go with the D-backs tonight.