F1 Mexico City Grand Prix Predictions, Odds & Picks
Last week’s United States Grand Prix ended the same way that most F1 races over the last two seasons have, but there was drama both during and after the action in Austin. Is another scintillating Sunday in store today at the Mexico City Grand Prix (4:00 pm ET, ABC)?
At Circuit of the Americas last Sunday, Max Verstappen started sixth but claimed his 15th win of the season.
But as he rode to victory, an issue with his brakes injected some drama into the final several laps, as Lewis Hamilton made a hard charge that might have been successful were there even another lap or two to navigate.
Ultimately, Hamilton’s late push was all for nothing, as he and polesitter Charles Leclerc, who finished sixth, were both disqualified following post-race inspections due to excessive wear on their skid pads.
For the second straight race and fourth time this season, Leclerc will start from pole, as he came out ahead of Ferrari teammate Carlos Sainz Jr. and Verstappen in Saturday’s qualifying session.
Historically, Leclerc has not been able to make the most of starting from the front. Will that change in Mexico City? Verstappen is still a heavy favorite, with Sergio Perez, who will be aiming for his first win at his home race, is next in line, followed by Leclerc and Hamilton.
Odds to Win the 2023 F1 Mexico City Grand Prix
- Max Verstappen -450
- Sergio Perez +1000
- Charles Leclerc +1400
- Lewis Hamilton +1600
- Carlos Sainz Jr. +2500
- Oscar Piastri +2800
- George Russell +4000
- Daniel Ricciardo +5000
- Lando Norris +6600
- Valtteri Bottas +6600
Mexico City Grand Prix Predictions & Picks
In my United States Grand Prix predictions, I noted Leclerc’s rough record as a polesitter. Four of his five career F1 wins have come from pole, but last week was his 21st start from there.
The disqualification was the cherry on top of a disappointing day for Leclerc, who has finished on the podium only three times this season. Two of those three podium finishes have come when he’s been on pole, but that result wasn’t to be for him in Austin.
That said, I backed Leclerc to land on the podium last week, and I’m doing so again this week in Mexico City at +110 odds. He may not have a great conversion rate from polesitter to race winner, but he has finished on the podium in exactly two-thirds of the F1 races in which he started on pole.
My other pick last week was for Fernando Alonso to pick up a points finish. Alonso was starting 13th, but given that he had finished inside the top 10 in all but one race this season, the value available was too good to pass up.
As with Leclerc, I was let down, as the two-time F1 world champion failed to finish a race for the first time this season.
Alonso will start 13th again today, and I’m compelled to go back to the well here as well, even though he and Aston Martin’s performances and results have dropped off as the season has progressed. Are the overall results swaying me here? Perhaps so, and so are the +125 odds.
My final pick for the Mexico City Grand Prix is also one with plus odds. In his F1 career, Pierre Gasly has finished in the top ten in this race three times in his five starts and came in 11th last year.
Gasly will start today’s race 11th, so he doesn’t have to make up several places in order to help this pick cash at evens.
Where to Bet on F1 This Season
Many of the top sports betting sites offer a variety of Formula 1 betting odds. Over the course of the season, you can bet on races like the Monaco Grand Prix, British Grand Prix, and more.
Along with being able to bet on F1 race winner odds for each race throughout the season, sportsbooks like Bovada offer finishing position odds (top three, top five, and/or top ten) and other special markets.
Also, while this year’s championship race is already over, you can find F1 championship winner odds each year at most sportsbooks that accept USA bettors.
In addition to Bovada, here are some of the sites that we recommend if you are interested in betting on F1:
