F1 United States Grand Prix odds, podium predictions: Will Max Verstappen win every remaining race?

Is it possible the Formula One race that holds the United States Grand Prix name is the third-most noteworthy race in the U.S.? It feels like that is true with Miami getting celebrity notoriety each year since it has joined the calendar and Las Vegas debuting next month. However, Austin still holds a special place in longer standing American F1 fans.

Circuit of the Americas hosts F1, MotoGP, NASCAR, endurance racing and more. This weekend it is hosting its 11th F1 grand prix, but it may have been passed by newcomers Miami and Las Vegas for prestige in the F1 calendar. It remains one of the foremost American race tracks.

The track features one of the more unique starts in F1 because the run up to Turn 1 is a steep uphill climb leading into the turn. Beyond that, get ready for lots of American cliches and cowboy hats from the grid.

With Max Verstappen having already clinched the championship, there is a bit less at stake this weekend, but Verstappen was virtually assured of the title months ago. He is -400 (1-to-4) to win the race, which remains funny to see every week despite Verstappen having incredibly short odds being the norm most of this season. Verstappen already had the fastest lap time in Friday’s practice session.

United States Grand Prix odds

This weekend also features a sprint race. That means there will be two qualifying sessions, one for the grand prix and one for the sprint. Verstappen has won three of the four sprints this season. Oscar Piastri won the sprint last race weekend in Qatar.

The Athletic’s F1 team answered questions about what to watch for the rest of the season and made podium predictions for Austin.

Every winner in Austin’s 10 races has started on the front row. Is that somewhat coincidental or is track position incredibly important in Austin?

Luke Smith: This statistic really surprised me when I found out. Austin is a track that really lends itself to close battles and overtaking, and often results in tight finishes. I think of 2018 when the top three all crossed the line within a couple of seconds of each other. But I guess with that statistic, then track position really does have to count for something!

Madeline Coleman: Similarly to Luke, this is surprising given the track layout. The drivers charge uphill towards a tight, tight left-hander, and the tight esses come shortly after at Turns 3-5. There’s plenty of close battles and overtaking opportunities at this circuit, but that’s just too long of a stretch for it to be a coincidence.

Patrick Iversen: I agree with my colleagues – this track should mix the order up a bit more than it has. I doubt we’ll break the streak this weekend, but that has less to do with the track and more to do with Max Verstappen’s dominance.

Does Ferrari have a realistic chance of catching Mercedes? Ferrari had outscored the German team in five straight races before Qatar and the deficit is still only 28 points. Ferrari’s odds of finishing second are 7-to-2 (+350), but are they perhaps a bit more likely than that?

Smith: Ferrari does, but I still think the advantage lies with Mercedes right now. While Ferrari has enjoyed higher peaks in form this year, most notably with Carlos Sainz’s victory in Singapore, Mercedes has been much more consistent. The updated floor should offer a late-season boost. So I reckon Mercedes should be safe in P2, barring any big surprises.

Coleman: This’ll be a boring response, but ditto to Luke (who wrote it at the same time as me while sitting a few chairs away in the media center). It’s a cliche, but consistency is key in Formula One. Despite their troubles earlier in the season, Mercedes found its rhythm. Ferrari has a realistic chance of snagging P2, but it’ll require strong point finishes by both Sainz and Charles Leclerc.

Iversen: The SF-23 is certainly better than it was earlier in the year, especially at high-speed circuits. “But where we’ve been lacking a bit more in the last few races was the medium, slow-speed corners,” Leclerc said on Thursday. Mercedes has the edge in pace, and the remaining races may not suit the Ferraris well enough to make up the deficit. Then again, the Mercedes have had a tough time consistently finishing in the points (Hamilton retired in Qatar and Russell crashed out at Singapore).

What changes do you expect in the constructors standings by the end of the season?

Smith: McLaren will definitely surpass Aston Martin, probably this weekend in Austin, but I think the gap to Ferrari in third is a bit too big. Zak Brown said his team would need a “miracle” to get third, but fourth should be safe. That’s the only change I see. I think the bottom four will keep picking up points here and there, yet it won’t be enough for any meaningful swings.

Coleman: I’ll be bold here — Ferrari will catch Mercedes, and McLaren will surpass Aston Martin. It’s not a change, per se, but I do expect Williams will hold off Alfa Romeo. There are six teams faster than Williams and Alfa Romeo so, realistically, P13 is the highest possibility.

Iversen: Well, McLaren taking fourth from Aston Martin is a lock. And it’s just 79 points behind Ferrari, though it would take a rapid downturn in form from the Italian team for that overtake to happen. I think Mercedes hangs on for second (Ferrari is too inconsistent) and Haas passes Alfa Romeo for eighth with its new upgrades.

There are five races left and Verstappen has already clinched the title. How many races do you think he wins the rest of the way?

Smith: Five. Verstappen proved in Qatar that absolutely nothing is going to detract his focus, even with the championships won. He’ll want to maintain his domination to the very end.

Coleman: All five. They all may be different tracks, but there’s really no reason Verstappen shouldn’t complete a clean sweep.

Iversen: He’ll win this weekend running away. This is a track the Red Bull should feast on. I don’t think it’s impossible he sweeps the rest of the schedule, either – Red Bull’s poor weekend in Singapore feels more and more like an anomaly. I’ll say four races.

Prediction time: What do you think will be the podium in Qatar?

Smith: 1. Verstappen 2. Hamilton 3. Pérez

Coleman: 1. Verstappen 2. Leclerc 3. Pérez

Iversen: 1. Verstappen 2. Hamilton 3. Pérez