Warriors vs. Grizzlies NBA Player Props, Odds: Picks & Predictions for Monday

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15 January 2024

Warriors vs. Grizzlies NBA Player Props, Odds: Picks & Predictions for Monday

Draymond Green is returning on Monday for Golden State's road game at Memphis, and we're offering our top Warriors vs. Grizzlies player props based on the best NBA odds from our best sports betting apps.

Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green is set to return from a 16-game disciplinary absence on Monday against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Neither the Warriors nor the Grizzlies are enjoying much success during the 2023-24 campaign, though for very different reasons.

The 14-25 Grizzlies have been coping with more than their fair share of bad luck. Ja Morant is done for the season, and Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart will also be out for the foreseeable future, joining multiple other injured Memphis players.

Meanwhile, the 18-21 Warriors might just be terrible. Klay Thompson is producing his worst campaign since his second year in the league, Father Time has finally caught up with Chris Paul, and Andrew Wiggins is truly terrible every time he steps on the court.

With so much uncertainty surrounding this contest, we're diving into the various player props markets to uncover any bets showing value.

To accompany our NBA best bets for Monday, here are our best Warriors vs. Grizzlies NBA player props and NBA picks (odds via ourbest NBA betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Warriors vs. Grizzlies NBA player props

Jacob Gilyard Under 7.5 assists (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

For those who weren't able to get either of our earlier player props for this game (line and odds movement have drained nearly all of the value from them), we're bringing you a third one.

Don't worry if you've never heard of Jacob Gilyard; you're certainly not alone. However, that's the beauty of following the numbers: we don't need to know who this guy is to make money betting on him.

Gilyard is expected to start for the Grizzlies for the second straight game. As a result, our best sports betting sites have jacked up his assists prop to 7.5. Now, most of the big sportsbooks haven't caught up, but we're seeing sharp action on the Under at Pinnacle, at which it's priced at -131 after opening at -113.

Based on NumberFire's projection of 7.10 assists for Gilyard, we're getting nearly 11% +EV on this bet. Between that and the advantage we're getting vs. Pinnacle's price, I'll grade this as a solid four-star pick.

Warriors-Grizzlies NBA player prop made Monday at 2 p.m. ET.

Steph Curry Over 4.5 assists (-129 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

When in doubt, bet on Steph Curry.

Not only is Curry one of just three players in this game being listed at our sites with the best sportsbook promos, but he's also the lone reliable player involved in the contest at all.

The Over on Curry's assists prop is showing value for two reasons. First, Caesars is pricing the Over at a far longer price than any of our other best sports betting apps. Comparatively, DraftKings is on the short end with -160 odds on the Over, and BetMGM and bet365 aren't far behind with -149 and -145 odds, respectively.

Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, opened with the Over priced at -152.

NumberFire projects Curry to finish with 5.6 assists on Monday. When we run that projection against Caesars' offering, we're getting roughly 14% positive expected value on this bet. If you don't have access to Caesars, ESPN BET is offering nearly identical -130 odds.

FanDuel is also providing a relatively enticing option, with +128 odds on Over 5.5 assists. You'd be getting roughly 10% +EV on that bet based on this projection.

Given the expected value and difference in price at Caesars versus our other best sports betting sites, this would usually be a four-star pick. However, I'm grading it as a three-star bet simply due to our lack of information regarding who will be playing in the game.

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Draymond Green Under 8.5 points (-128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

Only two of our best sportsbooks are offering Green's points market, so we're lacking a bit more information for this one. Nevertheless, we're getting solid value on the Under through FanDuel based on the projection alone.

NumberFire projects Green to score 7.5 points against Memphis, exactly one-and-a-half points fewer than he'd need to go Over his total. We're getting roughly 13% +EV when we run that projection against FanDuel's odds.

However, this is a case of "not all +EV bets are created equally." Generally, I don't like betting on projections alone, and the lack of data available via odds at our other best live betting sites and Pinnacle turns this potential three-star pick into a two-star one.

However, based on the data, it's the best option for those looking to bet on Green during his return.