Food City 500 Odds from NASCAR Bristol Motor Speedway: Bet this Top 10 before qualifying

It’s Bristol Baby! NASCAR heads to the world’s fastest half-mile for the first of two visits to Thunder Valley. For the first time since 2020, both races are on concrete, with NASCAR ditching the dirt experiment. But before we check out the early Food City 500 odds and what I’m looking to bet early in the week, let’s review everything that happened in the desert at the Shriners Children’s 500 from Phoenix Raceway. 

Shriners Children’s 500 Recap: Toyota Dominates

Friday’s 50-minute practice session was the most important session of the young season and a good preview of the type of speed Toyota was about to unveil in Phoenix. NASCAR unveiled its new “short track” package here with hopes of improving the racing in traffic and increasing the ability for drivers to pass. We can just say that drivers were not impressed with the results after practice.

Saturday solidified Toyota’s spot as the car to beat after they grabbed the front and four of the top six starting positions in Shriners Children’s 500 qualifying. That didn’t include Christopher Bell, who everyone acknowledged was the best car in practice, as he qualified 12th for the race, which in the end, did not matter.

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Sunday was much of the same story as the manufacturer finished in the top four spots in stage 1 and had four of the top 5 finishers in stage 2. The aforementioned rocket ship driven by Christopher Bell won the 2nd stage. Then, despite restarting in the middle of the field after a chaotic 30 or so lap sequence that included multiple cautions, ran away with the race winning by a Next Gen record 5.465 seconds.

Toyota cars made up just four of the top 10 finishers. But that weird sequence of cautions I previously mentioned, caused the field to be flipped and resulted in some very good cars finishing worse than they should have. All told, Toyota actually had five different drivers lead 50 or more laps, and the manufacturer was up front for 298 of the 312 total laps. Complete dominance by Toyota.   

2024 Food City 500 Odds: Pre-Qualifying

The NASCAR dirt experiment is over, thank goodness, and we’re back on concrete for the Spring Bristol race. So let’s see who sits atop the Food City 500 odds before cars enter the Last Great Colosseum this weekend.

2024 Food City 500 Odds: Early Bet from Bristol

This early in the week you’re really shopping for value, and obviously for sides that have a decent shot of hitting. This can often be found in matchups or placement markets, especially on top 10s, and that’s where I’m headed to begin my Food City 500 Odds betting card.

Michael McDowell Top 10 +240 (DraftKings)

Everything I mentioned above is exactly what we have with Michael McDowell to Top 10. Not because he’s been a top 10 machine here at Bristol, which he definitely hasn’t been, grabbing just two such finishes in 24 career races here. But because he’s finished 14th or better in four of the last five Bristol concrete events, including those two top 10s. He’s also been a qualifying maven so far in 2024.

Michael and his new affiliation with Penske has definitely helped elevate him and Front Row Motorsports. The No. 34 team has qualified no worse than 12th this season and inside the top 10 in three of the four races. This is very important here at Bristol where track position correlates very well to finishing spots and when shopping pre-practice and qualifying lines.

The books have yet to adjust McDowell’s early odds, and I’m going to keep hitting them until they do. Also of note, sportsbooks who offer qualifying markets, have him near the favorites now, just supporting the idea that he’ll be starting near the front. McDowell has two top-10 results so far this year and has been trending in this direction at Bristol for the last few years.