Futures Picks & Predictions for Atlanta

sportsbookreview.com

25 July 2023

There's a lot of optimism surrounding the Atlanta Falcons following a 7-10 campaign in 2022 that led to the draft selection of running back Bijan Robinson. Our Falcons betting preview looks at just how much they may improve with picks based on the odds from ourbest NFL betting sites.

The NFL odds for 2023 largely mirror the optimism many NFL fans seem to have for the Atlanta Falcons this offseason. After all, with Tom Brady (finally) retired, the door seems to be propped wide open in an NFC South after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers managed to win the division with a pedestrian 8-9 record last season.

Though we may not be ready to back the Falcons at their early Super Bowl odds, I'm intrigued by their projected NFL win total and several player props for 2023 from our best sports betting apps.

NFL betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Falcons betting preview 2023

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Falcons to win Over 8 games (-130 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There are several reasons I like the Over in this Falcons win total:

The line of 8 games from Caesars with every other book set at 8.5
They have the NFL's second-easiest strength of schedule for 2023, according to Sharp Football Analysis
They were heralded as winners of free agency with a completely rebuilt defense while adding arguably the draft's most skilled offensive player in running back Bijan Robinson
They're Shane Jackson's pick to go from worst to first in their division this season

Not only does Caesars set this line at an even 8 wins, but the -130 odds for the Over match the Over odds PointsBet has for its line of 8.5. Still needing 9 wins for a winning bet, we get the cushion of a push with an 8-win season from Atlanta.

Falcons to lose in Wild Card Round (+250 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Our five best sportsbooks all have the Falcons with the second-shortest odds to win the lowly NFC South this season. While I like them to win what's likely to be the NFL's worst division, the best price we're getting for that is just the +240 odds via Caesars.

With this "stage of elimination" market, we can get some insurance on the Falcons to potentially make the playoffs as a wild-card team, as DraftKings has them as slight underdogs to make the postseason with +105 odds.

Should they reach the playoffs for the first time since 2017, as expected by Sean Tomlinson in our NFL teams to make the playoffs predictions, I prefer the +250 odds to go one-and-done in third-year head coach Arthur Smith and sophomore quarterback Desmond Ridder's first playoff game at the helm of a young and new-look team.

Bijan Robinson to be Offensive Rookie of the Year (+300) ⭐⭐⭐

Sure, Robinson's the consensus betting favorite by the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, but via these +300 odds from FanDuel and Caesars, we're still getting excellent value relative to the +250 odds found elsewhere.

A running back hasn't won this award since 2018, but taken with the eighth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Robinson went 12 spots higher than any wide receiver. That wideout was Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but he's likely to spend much of the season as the No. 3 passing option in a crowded Seattle Seahawks receiving corps.

While this was one of the best QB draft classes in memory, Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, and Anthony Richardson will all run offenses sorely missing help at the skill positions. Robinson will share the Falcons' backfield with sophomore Tyler Allgeier and veteran Cordarrelle Patterson, but he also has a legitimate chance to be the team's third option in the passing game.

Rookie of the Year bettors should note that Robinson has the fourth-shortest odds to lead the league in rushing yards and a share of the sixth-shortest odds to lead in rushing touchdowns among the 2023 NFL rushing props.

NFC South straight forecast: 1st Falcons, 2nd Saints (+425 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

As noted above, the Saints are listed as the favorites to win the NFC South at most sportsbooks. However, with the Saints to finish first and the Falcons to finish second in the division priced at +285 in the straight forecast market, the difference is far too great.

This division is likely to be tight (at least between these two teams), as it was last year with the Saints and Falcons finishing third and fourth, respectively, with a shared 7-10 record.

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Falcons Over 3.5 wins in NFC South (+100 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Even money on this final pick in our Falcons betting preview is a steal from Caesars.

Atlanta has the advantage of hosting the Carolina Panthers and rookie QB Bryce Young in Week 1, so it won't need to deal with a raucous rival crowd hyped to see their team's No. 1 pick. The rematch will be played in Carolina in Week 15, but just four weeks after the Falcons' bye, whereas the Panthers will be returning home from a season-long three-game road trip.

The Falcons will play the Bucs in Weeks 7 and 14. In the first matchup (in Tampa), Atlanta will be coming off back-to-back winnable home games and it has a full week of rest for each encounter. The second meeting comes just three weeks after the Falcons' bye.

It's possible the Falcons sweep each of these two head-to-head season series and don't need to be concerned with the Saints. However, I like Atlanta to win at least the first head-to-head meeting in Week 12 as it'll play host with both teams coming off their shared Week 11 bye.