Kansas City Royals at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

The Kansas City Royals (13-31) close a 3-game series against the San Diego Padres (20-23) Wednesday. First pitch from Petco Park is at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Royals snapped a 4-game losing skid with a 5-4 victory Tuesday. They scored 5 runs in the top of the 2nd inning and held on the rest of the way behind 6 innings of 4-run ball by RHP Brady Singer and 3 scoreless frames from their bullpen.

The Padres are just 1-6 in their last 7 games and are 2-8 in their last 10 contests. San Diego has scored more than 4 runs only once in that 10-game stretch.

Royals at Padres projected starters

RHP Carlos Hernandez vs. RHP Yu Darvish

Hernandez (0-1, 4.50 ERA) makes his 1st start and 19th appearance. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 20 IP.

• Has not allowed a run in 14 of his 19 appearances
• Likely to be a bullpen game as his longest appearance this season is 2 1/3 IP

Darvish (2-2, 3.16 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 42 2/3 IP.

• Allowed 2 or fewer ER in 5 of 7 starts
• Career vs. Royals: 4-1, 2.40 ERA, 0.93 WHIP in 7 starts

Royals at Padres odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.

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Royals at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Royals 3

Both teams are struggling, but the Royals will be going with a bullpen game and they have the 4th-worst reliever ERA in the majors at 4.86.

Darvish has been very good for most of his starts this season and had a career 0.93 WHIP against the Royals.

However, at -275 odds, it isn’t worth the action on the moneyline.

PASS.

The Royals are 16-28 ATS this season, the 2nd-worst mark in the majors. However, the Padres are 8-13 ATS at home.

Eleven of the Royals’ last 13 losses have been by 2 or more runs, while the Padres’ last 11 wins have all been by at least 2 runs.

Your 2 logical plays for this game are to bet the Royals on the moneyline or to take the Padres on the run line.

I don’t trust a bullpen game for the Royals against Darvish.

BET PADRES -1.5 (-145).

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The game last night reached 9 runs, but the Padres have not had a game with a total higher than 9 in their last 13 games.

Five of the last 6 games for the Royals have not surpassed 9 runs.

BET UNDER 8.5 (+100).

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