Marlins vs. Padres Prediction: MLB Betting Lines & Picks

The Miami Marlins (28-26) host the San Diego Padres (24-29) to open a three-game series at LoanDepot park, with first pitch at 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday. The Marlins are coming off a series victory over the Angels, and the Padres a series loss to the Yankees.

The favored Marlins (-135 moneyline odds) play at home against the Padres (+114). The over/under in the game is set at 7.5 total runs.

The betting facts in the article below reflect odds as of May 30, 2023 at 5:12 AM ET. Ready to bet?

Marlins vs Padres Betting Lines

Marlins Betting Insights

• This season, the Marlins have been favored 21 times and won 11, or 52.4%, of those games.
• Miami is 5-3 this season when entering a game favored by -135 or more on the moneyline.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 57.4% chance of a victory for the Marlins.
• Miami and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 20 of 46 opportunities.
• In 46 games with a spread this season, the Marlins are 20-26-0 ATS.

Marlins Last 10 Games Trend

Padres Betting Insights

• The Padres have been chosen as underdogs in 18 games this year and have walked away with the win seven times (38.9%) in those games.
• San Diego has a win-loss record of 2-7 when favored by +114 or worse by oddsmakers this year.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Padres have a 46.7% chance of walking away with the win.
• San Diego and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 12 of its 45 opportunities.
• In 45 games with a line this season, the Padres have a mark of 22-23-0 against the spread.

Padres Last 10 Games Trend

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Marlins Probable Pitcher – Sandy Alcantara

• Alcantara’s team is 1-7-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
• The right-hander’s last start was on Thursday, when he tossed six innings while giving up two earned runs on four hits in a matchup with the Colorado Rockies.
• Alcantara has pitched five or more innings in seven straight games and will look to extend that streak.
• Alcantara’s team is 2-4 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
• In games Alcantara has started, his team is 3-7.
• Out of Alcantara’s eight starts with a total this season, five have hit the over.

Marlins Relief Pitchers

Padres Probable Pitcher – Ryan Weathers

• Weathers makes the start for the Padres, his sixth of the season. He is 1-3 with a 3.94 ERA and 18 strikeouts through 29 2/3 innings pitched.
• His most recent time out was on Wednesday against the Washington Nationals, when the lefty threw six innings, surrendering four earned runs while giving up seven hits.
• Weathers will look to go five or more innings for his third straight appearance. He’s averaging 4.2 frames per outing.
• The Padres have a 1-2 record in Weathers’ three starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
• Weathers’ team has won two of his five starts.
• Weathers has four starts with a set total this season — his team has gone under each game.

Padres Relief Pitchers

Marlins Hitting Trends

• The Marlins have a 7-17 record this season in games when they smash two or more homers.
• Miami has had at least five extra-base hits in nine games this season, and has gone 8-1 in those outings.
• The club is 26-25 in the games this season it has totaled at least eight hits.
• Miami has an 18-10 record in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
• The Marlins have drawn at least five walks in 13 games this season, and are 3-10 in those contests.

Padres Hitting Trends

• They’ve hit two or more homers in 24 games this season and are 10-14 in those matchups.
• In 12 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 7-5.
• They have won 17 of the 25 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
• San Diego has a 19-3 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
• They have a 14-9 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Marlins vs. Padres Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Marlins (-135)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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