Padres vs. Marlins Prediction: MLB Betting Lines & Picks

The San Diego Padres (25-30) and Miami Marlins (29-27) square off on Thursday at 1:10 PM ET at LoanDepot park, attempting to break a 1-1 series tie.

The Padres are favored (-118 moneyline odds) when they square off against the Marlins (+100). The total for this game is 7.5.

The betting trends in what follows reflect odds as of June 1, 2023 at 1:12 PM ET. Ready to bet?

Padres vs Marlins Betting Lines

Padres Betting Insights

• The Padres have entered the game as favorites 27 times this season and won 13, or 48.1%, of those games.
• San Diego has entered 24 games this season favored by -118 or more and is 12-12 in those contests.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Padres have a 54.1% chance to win.
• Games involving San Diego has gone over the total set by bookmakers in 13 of 47 chances this season.
• The Padres are 23-24-0 against the spread this season.

Padres Last 10 Games Trend

Marlins Betting Insights

• The Marlins have come away with 15 wins in the 26 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• This year, Miami has won 12 of 23 games when listed as at least +100 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 50% chance of walking away with the win.
• Miami and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 21 of its 48 opportunities.
• In 48 games with a line this season, the Marlins have a mark of 21-27-0 against the spread.

Marlins Last 10 Games Trend

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Padres Probable Pitcher – Joe Musgrove

• Musgrove’s team is 3-3-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
• The right-hander gave up one earned run in 6 1/3 innings pitched on Friday in his last outing, a matchup with the New York Yankees.
• Musgrove will look to finish five or more innings for the fifth start in a row.
• Musgrove’s team has a record of 3-1 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
• Musgrove’s team is 3-3 when he starts this season.
• Games Musgrove has started this season hit the over one time in six chances.

Padres Relief Pitchers

Marlins Probable Pitcher – Jesus Luzardo

• The Marlins will send Luzardo (4-3) to the mound to make his 12th start of the season. He is 4-3 with a 3.67 ERA and 70 strikeouts through 61 1/3 innings pitched.
• His last time out came on Saturday against the Los Angeles Angels, when the left-hander tossed five innings, surrendering one earned run while allowing seven hits.
• Luzardo is trying for his seventh straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.6 frames per start.
• The Marlins have a 4-2 record in Luzardo’s six starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
• Luzardo’s team is 8-3 over his 11 starts.
• Luzardo has started nine contests with a total set by oddsmakers this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in five of them.

Marlins Relief Pitchers

Padres Hitting Trends

• The Padres are 10-14 this season in games when they send out at least two homers.
• San Diego has put up five or more extra-base hits in 12 games this season, and has gone 7-5 in those contests.
• The team has strung together at least eight hits 26 times this season, and has an 18-8 record in those games.
• San Diego has a 20-3 record in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
• The Padres are 15-9 in the 24 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Marlins Hitting Trends

• They have won seven of the 24 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
• Miami has won eight of its nine games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
• In 52 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 26-26.
• In 28 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 18-10.
• In 15 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 4-11

Padres vs. Marlins Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Marlins (+100)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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