Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

The Milwaukee Brewers (24-19) and Tampa Bay Rays (32-13) open a 3-game set at Tropicana Field Friday. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Brewers won 4-0 in 2022

The Brewers dropped 2 of 3 in St. Louis earlier in the week, but they have gone 6-4 over the last 10. In the process, they took over the lead in the NL Central. The Brewers are 10-5 against the AL on the season.

Tampa has cooled off after its historic start. The Rays are just 4-6 over the last 10 games — all of which came on the road.  They are great at home, though, with a 19-3 mark.  1B Yandy Diaz (groin) has been out most of the week with groin tightness. He’s questionable for Friday, and his return could have a big impact.

Brewers at Rays projected starters

RHP Adrian Houser vs. LHP Shane McClanahan

Houser (0-0, 5.19 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.96 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 8 2/3 innings.

• Last start May 13 vs. Kansas City Royals: 4 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 2 K
• Has never faced Tampa; was 0-2 with a 7.82 ERA in 3 interleague starts in 2022

McClanahan (7-0, 2.34 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 50 innings.

• Last start May 13 vs. New York Yankees: 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 3 K
• Has not faced the Brewers in career; is 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA in 4 home starts this year

Brewers at Rays odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.

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Brewers at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 5, Brewers 4

McClanahan was cruising in his last start, but faltered in the 5th inning, allowing all 4 runs. It was the 1st start he allowed more than 2 ER all season. The Brewers are hitting just .216 with a .643 OPS against lefties this season. Tampa has the clear edge, but we’re not paying -250 for the ML here.

PASS and look to the spread.

Milwaukee won all 4 games against Tampa last year – 2 at each venue. The Brewers are 20-23 (11-11 on the road) on the RL this season. Tampa is 27-18 (14-8 at home). Both bullpens are pretty similar as the Brewers have a 3.95 ERA, and Tampa’s is 3.85. I look for Milwaukee to chip away once McClanahan exits.

Take the BREWERS +1.5 (-105).

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Milwaukee is 5-5 O/U over the last 10. Tampa went Under Thursday, snapping a 6-game Over streak. The Over has cashed in Tampa’s last 4 games against teams with winning records and last 4 with the total set between 7.0-8.5.

It’ll be close, but I’ll LEAN OVER 7.5 (-120).

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