MLB Hits Leader Odds 2023: Will Devers Rise Up?

The race to lead MLB in hits could be the one that the ban on infield shifts impacts the most. Let's dive into the 2023 MLB hits leader odds for the MLB season from our top-rated sportsbooks.

MLB teams can no longer stack what at times felt like an entire offensive line on one side of the field. And with the shift banned, there's some uncertainty tied to several MLB betting markets.

The hits leader category is the most prominent. Many of the classic low-power slap hitters could see an increase in production, with more of their ground balls getting through the infield. But will that lead to an unexpected name rising up the hits leaderboard?

Here's a look at the best odds for the 2023 MLB hits leader, and our top picks.

MLB 2023 hits leader odds

MLB 2023 hits leader odds best bets

• Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays (+1400 via PointsBet) - March 2
• Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox, (+2000 via Barstool) - March 2
• Luis Arraez, Miami Marlins, (+2800 via PointsBet) - March 2

MLB 2023 hits leader odds: Favorites

Trea Turner (+700 via Barstool Sportsbook)

If a .298 average looks like an uncharacteristic dip, you're probably Trea Turner and exceptionally good at putting wood to ball often.

That was the average Turner finished with in 2022 en route to ending up second in hits, only narrowly behind Freddie Freeman (194 to Freeman's 199). He produced a .320 average or better in each of the four seasons prior, topping out at .338 in 2021 during that stretch. He's recorded 180-plus hits three times over six full seasons, showing Turner can consistently put himself in a position to lead MLB in that category, or at least be well within striking distance. The hits leader has averaged 206.6 hits over the past 10 seasons.

Freddie Freeman (+1300 via PointsBet)

Freeman's swing always looks easy and leisurely despite the fury he seems to unleash on baseballs. He consistently ranks in the top tier in pretty much every underlying analytics category. That includes being among the top 2% in expected batting average and slugging in 2022, according to Baseball Savant.

His patience, nearly unmatched eye, and plate approach are what truly make him thrive. He's also ranked in the top 10% in strikeout rate and walk rate during two of the past three seasons.

Bo Bichette  (+1400 via PointsBet)

Riding with Bichette here will be a white-knuckle journey that could lead to several pounds lost due to perspiration. But in the end, there's a good chance it'll provide some nice pocket padding.

Bichette is entering just his third full MLB season after being called up in July 2019, and then the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign followed. He's ranked among the top three in hits twice, finishing second in 2021 (191) and third in 2022 (189, which led the American League). Much of that is the result of his incredible contact skill, as Bichette sat among the top 8% in expected batting average in 2022 (.278), and in the top 6% in hard-hit rate (50.3%). It's partly also due to just being durable and on the field. Bichette has played 159 games in two straight seasons.

You may need patience though and the ability to endure some agony. Bichette hit just .213 in March and April in 2022 before turning that around with a .296 average in May, slumping again in June, and then later erupting with a .406 in September.

MLB 2023 hits leader odds: Contenders

Tim Anderson (+1300 via Barstool)

Hitting .300 seems like breathing or blinking for Anderson. It's just a thing he does without thinking.

He's hit that mark in four straight seasons, and the shortstop has sailed past it several times while finishing at .322 in 2020 and .335 in 2021. The problem is he can't stay on the field often enough for that consistently high average to translate into more hits.

Anderson has only topped the 150 games played mark once over seven seasons. He bottomed out in 2022 while logging a mere 79 contests after missing significant time due to a hand injury. The 29-year-old also suited up for just 123 games in 2019.

It's easy and inviting to dream about his clearly abundant contact skills. But that skill set goes to waste when he's watching from the dugout.

Luis Arraez (+2000 via PointsBet)

Arraez checks some key boxes in the quest to pile up a whole lot of hits.

If you strike him out, it's hard to resist the urge to run around gleefully, and perhaps cannonball into the nearest body of water. Absurdly, he whiffed only 43 times over 603 plate appearances in 2022, making his 12.7 at-bats per strikeout miles ahead of the rest (the second-place finisher in that category was the Guardians' Steven Kwan at 9.4). He keeps at-bats alive and repeatedly gives himself a chance to put the ball in play, which led to the fourth-best average in MLB to end the 2022 campaign (an AL-leading .316).

The issue is that much of his contact is feeble. He's ranked in the bottom 8% or below in hard-hit rate during three of his four MLB seasons. Arraez won't be blasting balls into the gaps or through the infield, though the new rules regarding shifting will certainly help him.

Rafael Devers (+2000 via Barstool)

Devers missed 21 games in 2022, largely due to a midseason hamstring injury. Remember that and then look at his hits total: 164.

That still put him in the top 20 leaguewide despite the time lost, and 12th in the American League. He hits for plenty of power, but balances that out with contact too, which led to an .879 OPS in 2022 (eighth in MLB). Devers also isn't far removed from a .311 average in 2019 and finishing second with 201 hits.

There's lots of high-end quality contact in his bat, and he ranked in the 96th percentile in hard-hit rate in 2022. Getting his tools and production potential for +2000 feels like a mouth-watering bargain.

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MLB 2023 hits leader odds: Long shots

Amed Rosario (+2800 via PointsBet)

Rosario ranked fourth with 180 hits in 2022, his second career season with 175-plus knocks. He's also registered an average above .280 in two of the past three seasons.

That routinely high average and his recent track record make him an alluring dark-horse candidate. However, Rosario faces the same issue as Arraez, only worse. He doesn't make hard contact consistently, and Rosario pairs that with a free-swinging approach, putting his walk rate in the bottom 2% of the league in 2022.

But his flaws are baked into the price here. Rosario and the rest of the long shots become even more eye-catching when you scroll down just a little and see that three of the last six MLB hits leaders started with odds of +2000 or longer.

Paul Goldschmidt (+3300 via Caesars)

The concern with Goldschmidt is one that will come for us all: age.

He'll turn 36-years-old toward the end of the regular season, which is when bat speed often slows down, making both power and consistent solid contact difficult. But the laps around the sun don't seem to matter much for Goldschmidt. He posted career highs in slugging percentage (.578) and OPS (.981) in 2022, all while finishing seventh in hits. The veteran has stayed remarkably durable too, playing 150-plus games in seven straight seasons, and all but two during the pandemic-shortened campaign.

At juicy odds, go ahead and make your lunch at home one day, and invest that money in Goldschmidt instead.

Wander Franco (+3300 via PointsBet)

Injuries derailed Franco's 2022 season during what was to be his first full campaign in the majors, and he often wasn't truly himself when active. However, there were still prolonged glimpses of his hitting potential amid a season when he played just 83 games.

Franco recorded a .313 average in March and April, and then a .322 average in September. Combine that with his minuscule strikeout rate of 9.6 and expected batting average of .285, and he makes for a fine lottery ticket at this appealing price.

Recent MLB hits leaders

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