MLB picks today: Best player prop bets for Saturday, August 19

With a typically full Saturday slate — plus three West Coast doubleheaders as teams look to get ahead of Hurricane Hilary’s landfall in California — we’ve got an absolutely stacked day of baseball ahead of us. That means plenty of action, yes, but also plenty of decisions to make for those of us looking for profitable player props. To help you sort through such a big menu of options, here are three of our favorite plays of the day, with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

MLB player prop bets: Saturday, August 19th

Logan Webb, under 4.5 strikeouts (+115)

Webb has been largely dynamite this season, most recently coming one out away from a complete-game shutout against the Texas Rangers. But the righty will have to go up against the Atlanta Braves on Saturday, and even the best pitchers in baseball have been chewed up and spit out by Atlanta’s Death Star of a lineup.

The Braves, as a team, have hit a frankly ridiculous .304/.387/.534 so far in August, and they also hardly ever strike out: Their 18.6% K rate against righties since August 1 is the second-lowest in the Majors over that timespan. As good as Webb is, strikeouts aren’t a huge part of his game, with a 16% whiff rate and 8.67 K/9. He’s put up just 23 punchouts over his last 30 innings, with totals of 6, 6, 5, 4 and 2 — right around this number today. The only way for Webb to rack up five or more strikeouts is for him to work very deep into this game, and that just doesn’t seem very likely against an offense as fearsome as Atlanta’s.

Matt Manning, under 3.5 strikeouts (-115)

Speaking of pitchers who don’t strike out many batters: Manning has among the lowest K rates (9th percentile) and whiff rates (4th percentile) of any starter. For as low as this number is, the righty has fallen short of it in four of his last six starts, and I don’t expect that trend to change on Saturday. There isn’t much positive to say about the Guardians as an offense right now, but the one thing Cleveland does is make contact: They have a 19.8% strikeout rate against righties since August 1 that’s sixth-lowest in the league. A pitcher who hardly ever forces swings and misses against a team that hardly ever swings and misses? I’ll happily take the under here at basically even odds.

Luis Robert Jr., Ryan McMahon and Ezequiel Tovar, each to record a hit (+105)

With a run total of 12.5 — easily the highest of today’s slate — there should be runs aplenty when White Sox righty Jesse Scholtens and Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland do battle at Coors Field on Saturday night. While you’ll have a hard time finding favorable individual odds due to that friendly offensive environment, let’s build a three-way parlay to find some juice.

Robert Jr. went 0-for-4 yesterday, but that was just the second time he’s been held hitless this month; he has a .939 OPS in August, and a .963 OPS on the season against lefties that fits well with Freeland’s .899 OPS allowed to right-handed batters. McMahon appears to be hitting up again, with four hits, two homers and two walks in 10 plate appearances over the last two days, while Tovar has recorded multi-hit games in four of his last six and is hitting .312 for the month.